SNSN schreef op 4 december 2017 19:19:
The stock has hit its 'pattern target' ~142, exactly as prescribed (read post from Nov 8).
Though, the story is not over yet. The stock (and index) is still highly overpriced.
Indeed, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index passed by the lower volatility edge (LVE ~1000) of the 'tech bubble' 03-2000 in June 2017. So, GS was nor wrong giving 'earlier warning' signal. Moreover, the index passed by the 'bubble top' 03-2000 in Sep 2017. It's above the well proved 'bubble top' now. Given FA & TA indicators, the prob was really high a new 'tech bubble' was forming/completed.
Indeed, the st-volatility (for the index) at the top-forming 03/08-2000 was ~15%. The current st-volatility just rose up to ~8.5% (read last week posts), indicating a increasing probability for new top forming.
As for the stock, new attempts for upwards 'price manipulation' started in Jan-Mar 2017 at the level ~113, and were continued in June 2017 at the level of ~120 (just read old posts). So, the stock is just trying to return back to its (strategic) LT-uptrend channel formed since 2010 (take a look at recent posts).
From the technical points of view (following statistics) the 'pattern target' (it's ~142 for the 'rising wedge' pattern - see post from Nov 8) was usually broken down with high probability. So the next most probable 'natural target' for the stock is just the upper edge of (strategic) LT-uptrend channel ~123 (formed since 2010). While the 'following target' could be just its lower edge ~97 currently (read recent posts).
As for the company fundamentals, the fair value is just in the range ~120-70. And at current P/E ratios (see old posts) the stock is still highly overvalued (as well as the index).
Above ~120 the stock is just a playground for the mid-size specs trading d/st-volatility. And is actually on the way to its fundamentals (read recent posts for details).
Just take care.