Valuation Revised Upwards: From EUR 1.88 per share to EUR 2.40
Based on our NPV based valuation, we believe that Pharming is still substantially undervalued at
the current share price of EUR 1.38. We have increased our valuation for the company and estimate
that the company’s current total value should increase from EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 1,6 million,
which translates, based on an expected number of issued shares of approximately 657 million, into
EUR 2.40 per share. At this moment, we do not address value to other programs in Pharming’s
pipeline. This conservative approach offers potential upside for the share price.
Pharming Group 5
Valuation RUCONEST® in Acute and Prophylactic HAE
In estimating a value for RUCONEST®, we took into account potential markets in the US and
Europe with the US market calculated to be 75-85% of the total market. We calculate a Risk
adjusted Discount Rate of 8%. For RUCONEST® for prophylactic use we go with a LOA of
80% and a market launch in 2020 in the US. Pricing per attack is set at USD 10,000 with an
average of 25 attacks per year. We calculate a net margin rising to 60% within a few years.
We estimate that a peak market share of 20-25% for acute HAE and 15% for prophylactic HAE
should be possible.
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Market Size US Acute HAE 864 907 943 991 1040 1092 1147 1204 1264 1328 1394 Penetration 10.0% 15.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 23.0% 24.0% 25.0% 25.0% 24.0% 23.0% Market Size US Prophylactic 850 875 901 928 956 985 1014 1045 1076 1109 1142 Penetration 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.5% 5.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% Total Revenue US&EU (USDm) 89,3 126,6 162,1 210,5 263,4 313,3 355,5 400,0 438,7 467,0 491,4 Margin up to 60% -80.0 40,3 68,0 106,6 155,1 192,1 214,2 234,4 250,8 259,7 267,3 WACC 8% 1.00 0.93 0.86 0.79 0.74 0.68 0.63 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.46 NPV (million) -80,0 40,3 44,5 91,4 107,2 122,8 145,8 147,7 146,3 140,3 133,7 Total NPV (million) 1,641.3
Value per share (EUR) 2.39