avantiavanti schreef op 18 november 2019 18:25:
SVBLeerink 18 november 2019 samenvatting
PT: $194,-
R&D Day Displays Fruits of Innovative SpiritBottom Line:
GLPG showcased their capabilities and strategy during their R&D day, positioning themselves as a company with a pliable, productive platform, a deep pipeline, but more importantly a method and culture to their creative process promising much more to come. We reiterate our OP rating and $194 PT.
Our Take.
We spent considerable time with management after the R&D day presentations, as we hosted two days of meetings with GLPG management. We believe outside a few investors, the company is undervalued for its creativity, courage, and productivity. As Toledo’s identity remains speculative, we have not included its valuation in our models, but given the size of the effort from GLPG, we expect significant upside at the current valuations as we get to see the program in detail; perhaps even reinventing an entire class of therapeutics as the JAK inhibitors and the anti-cytokine biologics have. We remain sanguine about the prospects for success in their osteoarthritis program, given the enormity of challenge in the field, but we have also seen steady progress by the clinical academic community in using imaging to identify responder populations which can now be used for testing of a narrower responsive diseased population. While we have heard a lot of grumblings around the idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) program and why GLPG did not perform a Phase 2b study, we also have noticed that many are quite ignorant of the pathway, the Bristol Myers parallel program, and the clear reasoning behind the jump from GLPG. In our view GLPG is in that sweet spot of growth and inflection that makes the company highly attractive. With ample cash, a careful management, a solid translational biology-based discovery platform, nothing they are doing has even the slightest whiff of "me too" science. Thinking 10-15 year horizons seems absurd in the biotech business, but in our view every move that GLPG has been making today has been, from a bird's-eye view, strategic to build a fully integrated company that in 15 years will likely be in the top 10 of biotech.