Beursonline.nl

Anton78 5 oktober 2020 15:51

0

quote:
Stephan010 schreef op 1 oktober 2020 20:52:
2e dag zakt aandeel meestal 5% tot 8% en dan weer up. Tenminste als er geen nieuws komt over een lopende roundup zaak of een 3e corona golf.

Je zit er vooralsnog niet slecht vandaan met je voorspelling.

stockholder 7 oktober 2020 15:22

0

Zojuist toch maar 100 stukjes gekocht op 45,40. Misschien niet de bodem. Voor de wat langere termijn lijkt me deze prijs echter niet zo verkeerd. We zullen zien.

Anton78 9 oktober 2020 12:04

3

seekingalpha.com/article/4378278-baye...

Bayer: Risks Abound, But An Opportunity Might Arise
Oct. 8, 2020 11:01 PM ET|

Bayer looks cheaper than it really is.

The Monsanto acquisition was more about a transformation than about increasing earnings.

Why the guidance cut led to yet another sell-off.
The market hasn't really been that bearish

At first, I was surprised to see a heavy sell-off following Bayer's (OTCPK:BAYRY) (OTCPK:BAYZF) guidance cut last week. It certainly looked like investors had already been fearing the worst before that:

However, a closer look reveals that the market is not as bearish as it seems to be.

Effectively, over the past few years, Bayer has taken on over ~€20B of additional net debt, which means equity investors own less of the cake and "technical analysts" are in a bad place.

If we compare peak valuations on an enterprise value basis for the last five years, we can see that the market has regularly returned to similarly optimistic views - despite the emerged risks related to Monsanto, despite the risks related to higher debt and despite the pandemic:

Even after the Monsanto purchase and the related disappointments, in 2018 the previous peak EV was reached again. Yet this meant only €107/share for equity investors, compared to previously €142, as in the meantime the difference had been shifted to bond investors.

On average, Bayer's EV was €117B at peak in the five years until (and including) 2019. In the same years, the trough valuation was €92B on average. Comparing the single years' valuations and even the 2020 peak valuation, we see that - roughly speaking - the market has continued to see "the same old Bayer" all the time.

While today's EV of ~€80B represents a multi-year low - Bayer's EV hasn't been this low since 2013 - it is just 13% below the previous five years' average.

- But what about the multiple? - It sure has come down a bit. From an average of 9-12 until 2019 to 6-9 in 2020. Higher earnings seem to be worth less today. This might highlight growing concerns with Bayer's business fundamentals: A pharma business without a robust pipeline, for example, an uncertain future for the Roundup brand around the world, uncertain litigation costs, and, last but not least, uncertainties related to the pandemic, while doubts grow about fundamental damages resulting from a dangerous acquisition. So the market wants a margin of safety.
Monsanto is priced in

I know the objection: What about Monsanto? Didn't Bayer acquire Monsanto in those years? Where has that money gone?

Since the EV fluctuations haven't changed much compared to the pre-Monsanto days, some say that "there is no value for Monsanto in Bayer's current valuation." This is highly misleading. To finance the expensive transaction, Bayer sold several business units: Currenta was sold, Covestro (OTCPK:COVTY) was floated, Animal Health sold to Elanco (ELAN), several businesses sold to BASF (OTCQX:BASFY) for a total consideration of ~€28B. These businesses contributed a combined ~€3.2B of adj. EBITDA on ~€17B of sales, the bulk of which came from the highly cyclical Covestro.

With $4B of EBITDA in 2017 on $14.6B of sales, the earnings contribution from the acquired Monsanto is in the same ballpark. Hence, Bayer effectively exchanged a series of non-strategic assets for a much higher valued one. It got ~9x EBITDA for the ones it sold, while it paid 16x EBITDA before synergies for the one it bought. (Including the expected settlements, the multiple goes up to 19x!)

So Bayer evidently absolutely wanted to own Monsanto and increase its focus on crop science. It believes the greater scale and market share would provide enormous benefits over time, much more than those coming from owning a small animal health player, alongside a cyclical supplier of automotive foams and adhesives.

Overall, the reasoning is probably right. There will be enormous synergies, most of which will be nullified by the settlements however (estimated around €10B), and there will be strategic benefits from being the largest fish in the pond. However, it is very hard to quantify those long-term benefits today.

Hence, so far there has been no growth whatsoever from this acquisition. Bayer has exchanged earnings from several sources for the same earnings from a different source. This is why its EV, while fluctuating widely, on average has stayed the same despite the acquisition. And since the EV now includes substantially greater debt and is based on much less certain earnings, the stock has suffered.

As far as the strategic long-term benefits are concerned, the market is in show-me mode. Even more so, as the risk of long-term damage is not negligible (see below). So it clearly values the Monsanto part of Bayer at a much lower multiple than the Germans paid for it. Which is probably the right thing to do for the time being.
The risk of long-term damage

So what exactly caused last week's panic? - I guess it's the dividend cut.

The market should have known about potential negative forex and COVID impacts. It should have known that the previously targeted 10% EPS growth rate from 2018 to 2022 was not achievable anymore. It probably also knew that Monsanto was worth less than what Bayer had in its books. So the write-down should not be such a huge shocker.

But the market's forecasts probably stopped short of the ultimate taboo: the dividend cut. Bayer has been a reliable dividend stock for decades, which is likely reflected in its ownership: income funds, conservative retail investors. So the board could not take this decision lightly. Hence, there must be very substantial reasons for the cut.

The move will save ~€1B annually.

Investors should therefore think hard about the following:

Will the Roundup settlements ultimately cost even more money?
Is this a permanent reset?
Does Bayer foresee risks to service its debt?
Will deleveraging take more time, which means higher interest expenses for longer and lower earnings?
Will the lack of free cash affect R&D spending and therefore long-term growth?

I don't have final answers on these questions and I guess nobody has. Which means the price fluctuations tell a story of uncertainty. To make an educated guess on the direction the price will ultimately take, we will need to dig deeper into the business fundamentals. We will need to understand how adequately risks are priced in. Chances are that, following the Monsanto acquisition, a structural shift in Bayer's investor base has started, only to accelerate after the dividend cut. This would indicate a likely overreaction and a favorable risk/reward profile for patient value investors.

I will post more analysis in the coming weeks. So stay tuned.

stockholder 9 oktober 2020 18:56

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Anton, dank voor dit bericht.
Zeer interessant om te lezen. Er is veel meer aan de hand dan ik dacht.
Gisteren en vandaag lijkt de koers in rustig vaarwater te zijn gekomen.
Zonder de wetenschap van jouw post, dacht ik dat de koers toch weer naar 54 a 57 moet kunnen.
Maar of dit wel reëel is ??

duim voor bericht

[verwijderd] 9 oktober 2020 19:16

0

Bedankt voor het posten. Hoe kijken jullie hier tegenaan?

Anton78 9 oktober 2020 22:48

0

quote:
stockholder schreef op 9 oktober 2020 18:56:
Anton, dank voor dit bericht.
Zeer interessant om te lezen. Er is veel meer aan de hand dan ik dacht.
Gisteren en vandaag lijkt de koers in rustig vaarwater te zijn gekomen.
Zonder de wetenschap van jouw post, dacht ik dat de koers toch weer naar 54 a 57 moet kunnen.
Maar of dit wel reëel is ??

duim voor bericht

Dank je Stockholder, die koersdoelen lijken mij binnen redelijke termijn nog wel realistisch. Maar veel meer dan zit er denk niet in het vat.

Anton78 13 oktober 2020 10:20

1

Dit doet het sentiment bij Bayer momenteel vrees ik weer geen goed...

Barclays senkt Bayer auf 'Equal Weight' - Ziel runter auf 50 Euro

LONDON (dpa-AFX Broker) - Die britische Investmentbank Barclays hat Bayer von "Overweight" auf "Equal Weight" abgestuft und das Kursziel von 75 auf 50 Euro gesenkt. Die relativ schwache Entwicklung des europäischen Pharmasektors im dritten Quartal dürfte sich im Oktober fortsetzen, schrieb Analystin Emily Field in einer am Dienstag vorliegenden Branchenstudie. Der verdüsterte Ausblick des Pharma- und Agrarchemiekonzerns auf 2021 habe der Bayer-Aktie den Wind aus den Segeln genommen./edh/ajx

www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-...

Anton78 13 oktober 2020 10:28

1

Nieuwe update dan maar weer:

Datum Advies Koersdoel
13-okt-20 Barclays Houden € 50,00
8-okt-20 UBS Kopen € 85,00
8-okt-20 Sanford C. Bernstein & Co Kopen € 73,00
7-okt-20 Norddeutsche Landesbank Kopen € 60,00
5-okt-20 Independent Research Houden € 48,00
5-okt-20 AlphaValue Kopen
5-okt-20 Deutsche Bank Kopen
2-okt-20 Goldman Sachs Kopen € 84,00
2-okt-20 JPMorgan Cazenove Houden € 77,00
2-okt-20 Commerzbank Houden

stockholder 13 oktober 2020 14:45

0

quote:
Anton78 schreef op 13 oktober 2020 10:20:
Dit doet het sentiment bij Bayer momenteel vrees ik weer geen goed...

Barclays senkt Bayer auf 'Equal Weight' - Ziel runter auf 50 Euro

LONDON (dpa-AFX Broker) - Die britische Investmentbank Barclays hat Bayer von "Overweight" auf "Equal Weight" abgestuft und das Kursziel von 75 auf 50 Euro gesenkt. Die relativ schwache Entwicklung des europäischen Pharmasektors im dritten Quartal dürfte sich im Oktober fortsetzen, schrieb Analystin Emily Field in einer am Dienstag vorliegenden Branchenstudie. Der verdüsterte Ausblick des Pharma- und Agrarchemiekonzerns auf 2021 habe der Bayer-Aktie den Wind aus den Segeln genommen./edh/ajx

www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-...

dit soort berichten manen tot voorzichtigheid. Voor de lange termijn heb ik best vertrouwen maar om op dit moment de posities nog iets uit te breiden, lijkt me te veel van het goede.
De huidige koers nodigt anders wel uit tot kopen.

Anton78 13 oktober 2020 15:47

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Tja de DAX heeft een slechte dag en daarbij staat Bayer nu onderaan in de DAX. Deze downgrade van Barclays geeft op een dag als deze even een extra duw de modder in. Vervelend, wellicht nog niet de laatste downgrade en advieswijziging. Al hoewel er zoals je kan zien partijen zijn die vorige week een buy advies hebben herbevestigd en nogaltijd vasthouden aan een mooi koersdoel. Maar goed Bayer zit een hoek waar de klappen vallen en bij het minste of geringste stevig druk op de koers geeft.

Enig wat op korte termijn de koersdruk kan verlagen is wat goed nieuws tav de round up settlements. Eerste van November weer wat nieuws op dat geboed begrijp. Tot die tijd maar hopen dat bayer een beetje blijft liggen rond de 45.

Anton78 14 oktober 2020 09:26

1

Als ik het zo lees is het voor Bayer gunstiger om onze vriend Trump op zijn stoel te houden.

(CercleFinance.com) - Investment bank Barclays cut its rating on Bayer on Tuesday, causing a fall in the share price of the German pharmaceutical and agriculture conglomerate.

Bayer shares were down over 2% in late morning trade, the second biggest loser on Germany's bluechip DAX index, after Barclays downgraded the stock from 'overweight' to 'equal weight'.

It also cut its price target from 75 euros to 50 euros.

The downgrade comes as earnings season for pharma companies formally starts today, with the report of US giant Johnson & Johnson.

'In the short term, we see the lack of catalysts as relatively bearish for pharma,' Barclays wrote in a sector note, saying that the increased likelihood of a Democratic victory in the US may increase concerns around broader drug price legislation.

4finance 14 oktober 2020 10:16

0

quote:
Anton78 schreef op 14 oktober 2020 09:26:
Als ik het zo lees is het voor Bayer gunstiger om onze vriend Trump op zijn stoel te houden.

(CercleFinance.com) - Investment bank Barclays cut its rating on Bayer on Tuesday, causing a fall in the share price of the German pharmaceutical and agriculture conglomerate.

Bayer shares were down over 2% in late morning trade, the second biggest loser on Germany's bluechip DAX index, after Barclays downgraded the stock from 'overweight' to 'equal weight'.

It also cut its price target from 75 euros to 50 euros.

The downgrade comes as earnings season for pharma companies formally starts today, with the report of US giant Johnson & Johnson.

'In the short term, we see the lack of catalysts as relatively bearish for pharma,' Barclays wrote in a sector note, saying that the increased likelihood of a Democratic victory in the US may increase concerns around broader drug price legislation.

BAYER, voorlopig blijft het zakken. Ik kijk niet gek op als er nog een koers van €3*,** op het bord komt.

Anton78 14 oktober 2020 12:14

1

Tja bij UBS heeft men er meer vertouwen in, maar op positieve koersdoelen lijkt de koers niet te reageren. Alleen op negatieve :-) Dat zegt genoeg, niemand wil momenteel Bayer in zijn portfolio. De verkoopdruk zal blijven.

UBS belässt BAYER AG auf 'Buy'

ZÜRICH (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Die Schweizer Großbank UBS hat die Einstufung für Bayer auf "Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 85 Euro belassen. Die im Zuge des jüngst trüben Ausblicks angekündigte Dividendenkürzung bedeute nicht, dass es dem Pharma- und Agrarchemiekonzern an Liquidität mangele, schrieb Analyst Michael Leuchten in einer am Mittwoch vorliegenden Studie. Bayer habe erst im Sommer eine Anleihe im Volumen von sechs Milliarden Euro begeben, habe zudem Zugang zu kurzfristig verfügbaren Geldquellen und profitiere von Anteilsverkäufen./edh/ajx

Veröffentlichung der Original-Studie: 13.10.2020 / 15:06 / GMT
Erstmalige Weitergabe der Original-Studie: 14.10.2020 / / GMT

Hinweis: Informationen zur Offenlegungspflicht bei Interessenkonflikten im Sinne von § 85 Abs. 1 WpHG, Art. 20 VO (EU) 596/2014 für das genannte Analysten-Haus finden Sie unter web.dpa-afx.de/offenlegungspflicht/of...

www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-...

Anton78 14 oktober 2020 15:46

2

Ok eindelijk dan meer eens wat goed nieuws, alhoewel voor mij niet helemaal duidelijk hoe significant dit is. De koers reageert er in ieder geval nauwelijks op vandaag.

Bayer: non-Hodgkin's lymphoma combo meets endpoint in trial
10:16 14/10/2020

(CercleFinance.com) - Bayer said a combination of copanlisib and rituximab met its primary endpoint in a late-stage analysis, showing progression-free survival for patients treated with relapsed non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

A phase III study evaluating copanlisib in combination with Roche's rituximab in patients with relapsed indolent non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma showed that the combination 'significantly' prolonged progression-free survival, the German drugmaker said.

Copanlisib is an intravenous kinase inhibitor with activity against all isoforms expressed in malignant B cells.

The study enrolled 458 participants.

Copyright (c) 2020 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved

Anton78 15 oktober 2020 08:44

2

seekingalpha.com/article/4379152-baye...

Summary

Developing not only one but various models for a business leads to valuable additional insights.

In this article, I provide an adjusted EPS projection, a sum-of-the-parts valuation and a cash flow model.

The result is not surprising, but we gain a deeper understanding from the exercise.

A few notes on modeling Bayer

As my readers know, I don't believe much in models. Yet, I actually do quite a bit of modeling in order to improve my understanding of the involved dynamics and key issues. Whereas many investors look at the last line in their spreadsheet to inform their decisions, I mainly look at the structure of the spreadsheet to understand what the last line depends on.
Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY, OTCPK:BAYZF) does not break out exactly how much it has already spent for each restructuring initiative and which savings these initiatives have already generated. What we know is only how much was spent in each quarter on all restructuring initiatives combined, and we always get some hints regarding the overall good progress of the most important program (started following the Monsanto acquisition). Hence, we cannot project a precise flow of expenses and savings.

Adjusted EPS projection

This is the "quick and dirty" method. We take the original projection from Bayer's 2018 Investor Day slide and apply some tweaks to it:

We now know what the company told us last week, i.e., that the recently adjusted outlook for 2020 is confirmed, but that 2021 sales are expected at approximately 2020 levels, while 2021 core earnings per share are expected to be slightly below 2020 levels at constant exchange rates. So, we can adapt the projection, include two flat years, and simply shift the achievement of the EPS €10 target two years to the right (or three years, to be more cautious).

While this would clearly provide an excellent argument to purchase the stock, it would be severely flawed:

These are adjusted numbers. Whether Bayer pays €10 billion or €80 billion for the Roundup settlements has no effect on these numbers.
Looking at EPS only ignores debt and the related risks.
Ironing your shirts then putting them in the washing machine produces a different outcome from washing your shirts first, then ironing them. So, the exact sequence of cash flows matters. Will Bayer first drown in debt before it could make some money back? Our model doesn't tell us anything about that.

One thing the slide actually tells us is that synergies will simply compensate for projected cost inflation. So, the restructuring program's objective is to keep costs close to flat despite growth. This, however, should be part of every management's daily routine. Announcing a "restructuring program" often is only an elegant way to shift the focus on related savings, while actually announcing additional costs - which immediately disappear from "adjusted" earnings.
Sum of the parts

The SOTP valuation has always represented the "pie-in-the-sky" scenario for Bayer, since all of its single business units deserve a premium multiple. However, this would assume that there is a chance Bayer might split into three companies - which, I believe, is very unlikely.

That said, we can still do a SOTP with modest multiples to find out a rock-bottom valuation for a break-up scenario, where Bayer needs to split up in order to stay alive.

This exercise tells us that even factoring in a steep patent cliff and, therefore, applying a very low multiple for the pharma business still yields ~€50 billion of value for this segment. An equally modest multiple for the Consumer Health unit still adds ~€13 billion. Hence, Bayer without Crop Science is still worth ~€24/share (EV €60 billion less net debt of €36 billion, divided by 983 million shares outstanding). Therefore, we only need the Crop Science business to be worth ~€22 billion to justify the current share price of €46. This represents a multiple of 4x EBITDA. While the business certainly has its risks, I guess for such a multiple it would find a private buyer tomorrow.

So this exercise highlights how cheap Bayer is compared to private market valuations. Once again, it doesn't tell us anything about the path to value realization. Between now and then comes a tough period where cash flows are earmarked for settlements and Bayer needs to save every penny. In theory, once the company will have crossed the river, it will be fine, but we don't know whether it has a boat, a life jacket or whether it can swim at all.

Finally, in an emergency situation, Bayer might be forced to use cash flows from Pharmaceuticals to save Crop Science, which would reduce the Pharmaceuticals segment value just to keep the Crop Science value from going negative.
Cash flow model

The apparent precision of these models can easily fool us, so we have to keep in mind on how many different assumptions they are built and that overthrowing only one of them could make our investment case crumble like a cookie. I will explain my key assumptions below.

Moreover, Bayer has already announced further divestitures and its intention to do some small-scale M&A. This means that the model is necessarily very imprecise. And it will certainly be proven wrong.

That said, it can still tell us some key conditions for Bayer to find a path towards real cash generation (not "before special items") and debt reduction.

Assumptions:

Xarelto patent cliff: Xarelto will be over 50% of EBITDA in 2023, and two-thirds of this will go away within 2 years, partially compensated by growth from other drugs.
Pharmaceuticals overall will grow 10% annually from 2020 to 2023. The company predicts a V-shaped recovery after the pandemic. (Key assumption: very little COVID-impacts in 2021.)
Crop Science will be down so much in 2021 that despite growth from the other two segments, total EBITDA in 2021 will be flat, after which it will grow at 10% annually.
Consumer Health grows at 4% annually.
Capex remains flat.
The large Roundup settlement will remain around €12 billion overall and will be paid out over three years.
Other special items that affect cash flows are large restructuring expenses. I don’t factor in additions to EBITDA from these restructurings, but only flat costs. I also expect restructurings to continue beyond 2023, although at smaller levels.
How all this will affect taxation is anybody's guess. To be conservative, I have included growing tax payments over the forecast period.
Free cash flow after special items and dividends is provided to gauge what remains for growth initiatives or debt repayment. Until 2023, it will be very little.
However, my model shows about €13 billion of total available cash in 2023-2025, which will likely be employed to buy some growth, which could largely offset the Xarelto patent cliff. Assuming Bayer manages to acquire ~€500 million of FCF, 2025 FCF could effectively be flat compared to 2024. So far, my model does not include any additional earnings from these growth expenditures.

Anton78 15 oktober 2020 08:44

1

Overall, I believe realistic expectations for 2025 could be ~€8/share of FCF, with very sustainable leverage of around 2x Adj. EBITDA and earnings growth in the low- to mid-single digits thereafter. This would probably be worth a trading multiple of 16x-20x FCF. Hence, in 2025, one share should be worth €128-160 (~3x from today's trading price). At the mid-point, this would represent an EV of ~€170 billion, for an EV/EBITDA multiple of about 12.

Bayer would be past its Xarelto patent cliff and near the Eylea exclusivity loss (which, however, should not translate into an immediate large loss of revenues, as an injection into the eye likely creates greater brand fidelity).

The Monsanto acquisition would be past its key risks and start to play out its benefits.

Clearly, the entire projection hinges on the Roundup settlement: how much will be paid, when and whether it will resolve all future cases as well - these are the key questions.

A higher-than-expected settlement could severely impact growth investments or even cripple the company. On the other hand, even a somewhat higher amount combined with a much slower payment schedule could actually be quite helpful.
Bottom line

Bayer is cheap beyond any doubt, but there are important risks. Although I usually run a concentrated portfolio, I won't make Bayer a large position. Since lawyers and plaintiffs have no interest in bankrupting the company, on a probabilistic basis, it is a smart bet. However, size your position carefully.

stockholder 15 oktober 2020 18:54

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Mooi stukje proza. Koersvoorspelling is natuurlijk schitterend. De moeite van het wachten wel waard, lijkt me. Dus alleen voor geduldige mensen.

This would probably be worth a trading multiple of 16x-20x FCF. Hence, in 2025, one share should be worth €128-160

De "slag om de arm" serieus nemen, kan ook geen kwaad.

Although I usually run a concentrated portfolio, I won't make Bayer a large position. Since lawyers and plaintiffs have no interest in bankrupting the company, on a probabilistic basis, it is a smart bet. However, size your position carefully.

Anton, dank wederom voor het delen.

Anton78 16 oktober 2020 22:26

0

Dit vond ik zelf ook wel een mooi verhaal die weer wat vertrouwen geeft en het gevoel versterkt om vooral te blijven zitten.
Gisteren op een bloedrode dag bleef Bayer mooi liggen, lijkt erop dat de 44 ongeveer de bodem is zonder nieuwe grote tegenvallers.

Anton78 20 oktober 2020 21:35

1

www.reuters.com/article/brazil-digita...

Bayer's Orbia plans Latam expansion after Bunge deal in Brazil
By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Orbia, an online farm products trade platform majority owned by Germany's Bayer AG BAYGn.DE, is betting that a deal with U.S. grain merchant Bunge Ltd BG.N will pave the way for a planned international foray, Chief Executive Ivan Moreno said on Monday.

Under the partnership with Bunge announced in September, Orbia’s 170,000 registered farm users in Brazil can sell produce online to the U.S. firm, which secured exclusive origination rights to the platform.

Moreno, a former Bayer executive, said in an interview the deal allows farmers to sell corn and soy on the futures or spot market in exchange for cash or credit to buy inputs on Orbia for use in future seasons, a transaction typically known as “barter.”

Farmers can also acquire seeds, pesticides and fertilizers from 120 accredited distributors using the platform, which gives them loyalty points that can be swapped for products or support services.

“Bunge’s presence adds a lot of liquidity to the business model,” Moreno said.

The company is preparing to expand into Colombia, Argentina and Mexico next year and allow the sale of coffee and wheat on the platform, Moreno said.

Orbia’s launch coincides with the emergence of a younger generation of Brazilian farmers keen to go digital. Farm managers aged 25 to 35 represent 35% of the leadership, up form 20% in 2013, Moreno said.

As more growers go online, Orbia could capture up to 20% of Brazil’s 110 billion real ($19.6 billion) market for farm inputs in three years, Moreno predicted. In a single week in August, farm input sales on Orbia reached 140 million reais.

Traders other than Bunge could join in as buyers, Moreno said, without giving a time frame because the duration of Bunge’s exclusive origination rights is confidential.

Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Richard Chang

Anton78 21 oktober 2020 09:30

1

www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-...

BAYER IM FOKUS: Warten auf das Licht am Ende des Tunnels

LEVERKUSEN (dpa-AFX) - Die dunklen Wolken über Leverkusen ziehen sich weiter zusammen: Zusätzlich zum milliardenteuren Glyphosat-Streit wächst in der Agrarsparte von Bayer auch der Druck im Tagesgeschäft. Corona-Krise und harter Wettbewerb belasten. Weitere Milliarden müssen abgeschrieben werden. Die Übernahme des US-Saatgutkonzerns Monsanto im Jahr 2018 wird so immer kostspieliger. Der Aktienkurs findet weiterhin keinen Boden. Was bei Bayer los ist, was die Analysten sagen und wie die Aktie zuletzt lief.

DAS IST LOS BEI BAYER:

Für den Leverkusener Traditionskonzern kommt es derzeit knüppeldick. Das Thema Glyphosat zieht sich weiter in die Länge, und nun auch noch das: Im Agrargeschäft schlagen Konkurrenzdruck, die Folgen der Corona-Krise und schwierige Bedingungen in Mittel- und Südamerika mit voller Wucht zu. Die Menschen reisen weniger, der Kraftstoffverbrauch sinkt und damit auch die Nachfrage nach Bioethanol. Landwirte bauen daher erst einmal weniger Mais an, aus dem auch der Biokraftstoff gewonnen wird.

Hinzu kommt die Belastung durch den schwachen brasilianischen Real, da das Unternehmen viel Saatgut und Pflanzenschutzmittel in Südamerika verkauft. Und: Im wichtigen Geschäft mit Sojasaat wird - unabhängig von der Corona-Krise - der Konkurrenzkampf härter. Konzernchef Werner Baumann stellte die Aktionäre daher Ende September auf ein schwieriges Jahr 2021 ein.

Um sich zu wappnen, soll nun noch mehr gespart werden. Zusätzlich zum aktuellen Programm, das die jährlichen Kosten ab 2022 um 2,6 Milliarden Euro drücken soll, sollen ab 2024 mehr als 1,5 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr wegfallen. Womöglich bedeutet das auch weitere Stellenstreichungen über den bereits laufenden Abbau von 12 000 Jobs bis Ende 2021 hinaus. Zumindest in Deutschland will Bayer aber bis Ende 2025 weiter auf betriebsbedingte Kündigungen verzichten.

Erst einmal muss der Konzern aber hohe Aufwendungen schultern. Wegen des "eingetrübten Ausblicks im Agrarmarkt" kündigte Baumann Ende September eine Wertberichtigung in der Crop-Science-Sparte im mittleren bis oberen einstelligen Milliarden-Euro-Bereich an.

Unter dem Strich dürfte damit im dritten Quartal erneut ein dicker Verlust anfallen, nach einem Minus von 9,5 Milliarden Euro im zweiten Jahresviertel. Da hatte Bayer Geld für die Lösung des US-Rechtsstreits über angebliche Gesundheitsschäden durch die Verhütungsspirale Essure, vor allem aber für die Beilegung des Glyphosat-Streits beiseite gelegt. Die Causa Glyphosat mit mittlerweile zehntausenden Klagen hatte Bayer sich mit der Übernahme des US-Saatgutriesen Monsanto ins Haus geholt.

Eigentlich hatte Baumann mit Blick auf Glyphosat schon Ende Juni mit einem umgerechnet mehr als 9 Milliarden Euro schweren Vergleichspaket reinen Tisch machen wollen. Der zuständige Bundesrichter Vince Chhabria störte sich allerdings an dem Teil der Vereinbarung, der mögliche künftige Klagefälle abdeckt. Bayer setzte sich also mit den Klägeranwälten wieder an den Verhandlungstisch. Mittlerweile wurden Fortschritte erzielt. Es müssten nur noch die Details finalisiert werden, teilte Bayer im September mit. Analysten spekulieren bereits, dass der Konzern eventuell noch mehr Geld in die Hand nehmen müsse.
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Im Pharmageschäft und dem Geschäft mit rezeptfreien Medikamenten dürfte es zuletzt indes wieder besser gelaufen sein. Sie hatten im zweiten Quartal noch unter der Kaufzurückhaltung der Kunden gelitten. Viele Menschen hatten sich bereits mit dem Aufkommen der Corona-Pandemie reichlich mit rezeptfreien Mitteln eingedeckt und sich dann erst einmal zurückgehalten, während die Pharmasparte unter den zahlreichen Verschiebungen nicht dringend notwendiger Behandlungen in der Krise litt.

Die Pharmasparte versucht Bayer zudem für die Zukunft zu rüsten, um den in ein paar Jahren wegfallenden Patentschutz für Kassenschlager wie Eylea und den Gerinnungshemmer Xarelto abzufedern. Aktuell durchläuft Vericiguat - ein Mittel gegen Herzinsuffizienz - ein beschleunigtes Zulassungsverfahren in den USA. Wichtig werden zudem detaillierte Studiendaten zum Medikamentenkandidaten Finerenon bei der Behandlung chronisch Nierenkranker mit Typ-2-Diabetes, die Bayer auf einem Kongress am 23. Oktober präsentieren wird. Die bereits länger bekannten Eckdaten der Studie hatten Experten durchaus überzeugt.

Auch in das Geschäft mit Krebsmedikamenten wie Nubeqa gegen das Prostatakarzinom sowie rund um Frauengesundheit steckt Bayer weiter Geld. Mit Blick auf letzteres kauften die Leverkusener erst jüngst das britische Biotechunternehmen Kandy Therapeutics, das einen Medikamentenkandidaten gegen Beschwerden der Wechseljahre entwickelt hat. Zudem forscht Bayer gemeinsam mit Evotec an einem Endometriose-Medikament.

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