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[verwijderd] 10 september 2007 18:48

Laat Ron maar raaskallen.

Het beste wat Brus ooit heeft gedaan, is de overname van Berna.
Daardoor is Crucell een volledig geintegreerde onderneming geworden. En dat voor een spotkoopje met opgepompte aandelen.
Het heeft een flink aantal beleggers (moet ik hier speculanten zeggen?) zowat de kop gekost, maar degenen die rustig zijn gebleven, dus de lange-termijn-beleggers, overwinnen alle stormen.
Crucell staat er op dit moment beter voor dan ooit tevoren.
Negen producten in de kliniek en langzaam maar zeker gaat ook de Star-portefeuille gevormd worden.
Dat hele research-programma kan betaald worden uit de Berna-winsten en daarnaast zijn voldoende kasmiddelen aanwezig.
Volgens mij is de situatie zodanig, dat ons aandeel minder zou moeten teruglopen dan de beurs.

[verwijderd] 10 september 2007 21:06

Ik ben het helemaal met oudje eens; zij die mochten twijffelen over de potentie van Crucell moeten nog maar eens nadenken over de samenwerking met DSM.

ischav2 10 september 2007 21:18

Zelf heb ik een grote positie sinds jaar en dag in Crucell. Toch vind ik dat je kritische beschouwingen serieus moet nemen. Het koersverloop laat onmiskenbaar te wensen over en dat niet alleen door marktsentiment.

harvester 10 september 2007 21:31

Ron please stop moaning.

Current PPS is beneficial for anyone who wants to expand his position, so I am not complaining and you do not have to do that either if you simply take the opportunity to add to your position(s).

The only problem is market valuation on the stock exchange.

Partners with good knowledge of the CRXL technology apparently write their appreciation by signing more deals with CRXL, a company which is financially sound and cannot be pushed anymore to accept low percentage deals.

[verwijderd] 10 september 2007 21:50

'The only problem is market valuation on the stock exchange'

This was the only problem Berna Shareholders had. The employees and research scientists were as content as could be. They were spending money and getting paid.

The company is getting no closer to solving the
'problem with market valuation on the stock exchange'

They are burning more cash than promised, they are behind(if you listened from 1 year ago)on virtually every project they are working on...only Sanofi, the "deal that sucked, the deal we wished we had never made" is on track. What is the difference there? Crucell is not in charge.

I only have a simple request, that others join me when Crucell misses their numbers this year, in asking Brus to step aside.

gogogoo 10 september 2007 22:09

quote:
ron banged schreef:
'The only problem is market valuation on the stock exchange'

This was the only problem Berna Shareholders had. The employees and research scientists were as content as could be. They were spending money and getting paid.

The company is getting no closer to solving the
'problem with market valuation on the stock exchange'

They are burning more cash than promised, they are behind(if you listened from 1 year ago)on virtually every project they are working on...only Sanofi, the "deal that sucked, the deal we wished we had never made" is on track. What is the difference there? Crucell is not in charge.

I only have a simple request, that others join me when Crucell misses their numbers this year, in asking Brus to step aside.

Crucell never missed the numbers they themselves gave. BTWL: you were more positive when they didn't publish any PR's. Why is that?

[verwijderd] 10 september 2007 22:50

"Crucell never missed the numbers they themselves gave. BTWL: you were more positive when they didn't publish any PR's. Why is that?"

I have to laugh at this. If I had asked you what the bottom line earnings numbers at year end would be, and how much lower the "cash and cash equivalent" numbers would be at the end of 2007 after Kruimer gave that bullshit guidance of "cash flow break even on net operating activities minus capex" at the beginning of the year, you would have been .50 euro off on each. Why? Because it was a bullshit number.

Besides, I am asking if you will join me in asking Brus to leave if they miss the numbers they themselves gave in MAY 2007! How could they possibly miss those?

It is not the PR's. it is that I talked to Brus directly and he did not speak the truth to me...it is as simple as that.

harvester 10 september 2007 23:08

Ron

Expectations can easily not be realised due to some more due diligence at the end of a contracting party, especially if they are big companies with a lot of people who can ask questions and thus delay decisions.

So do not get disappointed that quickly.

Also do not blame Brus for missing expectations on such short term. If you were in his place you may have acted the same as Brus (assuming you would also understand the CRXL business in depth). He could most likely say nothing more to you than in the last press release. He will have referred to that press release too, but such is easily not heard if you do/did not want to hear that.

Look at the long-term development and look at the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter figures of this year. You may be smiling again at that time.

gogogoo 11 september 2007 07:49

quote:
ron banged schreef:
"Crucell never missed the numbers they themselves gave. BTWL: you were more positive when they didn't publish any PR's. Why is that?"

I have to laugh at this. If I had asked you what the bottom line earnings numbers at year end would be, and how much lower the "cash and cash equivalent" numbers would be at the end of 2007 after Kruimer gave that bullshit guidance of "cash flow break even on net operating activities minus capex" at the beginning of the year, you would have been .50 euro off on each. Why? Because it was a bullshit number.

Besides, I am asking if you will join me in asking Brus to leave if they miss the numbers they themselves gave in MAY 2007! How could they possibly miss those?

It is not the PR's. it is that I talked to Brus directly and he did not speak the truth to me...it is as simple as that.

Well Ron, just keep laughing. It's healthy.

wilb52 11 september 2007 10:01

quote:
voda schreef:
Hi Sammie, heb je de laatste tijd nog wat verdiend op de beurs?

groet,
Voda

Het voorspelde scenario, komt aardig goed uit!
door allerlei perikelen , handel ik zeer weinig en zit vnl aan de kant.

sammie

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 10:40

Wat positiefs.

Op de uur grafiek is Crucell vanaf de laatste top uit gebroken en gisteren geslaagde terug test gedaan.
Op de dag grafiek is er ruimte tot rond de 15,40.

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 11:17

quote:
bernardo1960 schreef:
Wat positiefs.

Op de uur grafiek is Crucell vanaf de laatste top uit gebroken en gisteren geslaagde terug test gedaan.
Op de dag grafiek is er ruimte tot rond de 15,40.

9-11 is hier in Europa bijna halverwege. Als er in de VS niets gebeurt zal het morgen al snel beter gaan. Dan alleen nog focus op de huizenmarkt.

Hopelijk trekt ook dat aan en dan kan crucell hard gaan.

gr.DH

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 11:50

Een paar dagen geleden werd melding gemaakt van iemand die voor 1 mio usd short stond. Het kon ook van een hedgefund zijn die door de bank verplicht was af te dekken. Bron: rtlz

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 12:46

quote:
DieGroeneGigant schreef:
Een paar dagen geleden werd melding gemaakt van iemand die voor 1 mio usd short stond. Het kon ook van een hedgefund zijn die door de bank verplicht was af te dekken. Bron: rtlz

joh, zelfs ik had dat verzonnen. Moeten ze daar 2 weken op broeden? Geeft de klasse van RTLz weer aan :-)

Gr. DH

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 13:02

quote:
Downhill schreef:
[quote=bernardo1960]
Wat positiefs.

Op de uur grafiek is Crucell vanaf de laatste top uit gebroken en gisteren geslaagde terug test gedaan.
Op de dag grafiek is er ruimte tot rond de 15,40.

[/quote]

9-11 is hier in Europa bijna halverwege. Als er in de VS niets gebeurt zal het morgen al snel beter gaan. Dan alleen nog focus op de huizenmarkt.

Hopelijk trekt ook dat aan en dan kan crucell hard gaan.

gr.DH

High yesterday was 14.66, today it topped out at 14.64. So it hasn't proved anything today, it is still firmly in a downtrend, short, medium and long term. Crucell is up less than the AMS market as a whole. And as anybody has noticed, often Crucell cruises along until the end of the day and then collapses. As they say on CNBC, the closing hour, the most important hour of the day, it is how the stock finishes that matters

BTW, here is a post from Investorvillage by a guy named Village People

"Valuation

At some point the Valuation guys have to get on board. The price/share guys aren't happy. The Big Picture supporters aren't happy. Maybe the Valuation people can get excited.

Crucell is trading for 3.3 times 2008 earnings. How can that be? Well, anything is possible considering there are many of us who bought in about 2002 when the stock was trading for 3 times less than cash on hand.

The estimates I've seen for 2008 revenues are in the $390 million range (http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/S&P+Equity+Research+Upgrades+Crucell+N.V.+ADS+(CRXL)+to+Buy/2920635.html). Management itself has stated 30%+ growth (hold your breath?). 65 million shares outstanding at current market value gives a 3.3 times 2008 earnings valuation.

#1 This company MUST start making a profit. Management has f--d off too long.

Hopefully it is inevitable that profit will be forthcoming.

Brus: Clown in a Monkey suit. Period. Cute guy, nice curly hair, very expensive suits, Extremely overpaid. I prefer substance over fluff.

Kruimer: Can't see the forest for the trees. Touts his GE experience. HUGE difference, GE makes a gigantic Profit then buys companies, manages them with expertise and reaps the rewards.

Crucell does not make a profit and does not have the management expertise to run itself, much less a company it takes over. Get a clue. Stop buying companies and the resulting dilution.

I stated under a different nom de plume long, long ago on the "other" board, when Crucell had less than 200 employees, Fire everyone except a secretary and a real salesperson. Make a profit in investment income from cash on hand. Wait for the licensing companies to bring products to market using Crucell technology. Make huge profit. This wisdom would surely have done us better in the past 2+ years than management's current "strategy". My dad taught me long ago that bigger is not necessarily better.

Key: Make Profit. Then re-invest wisely.

Valuation 3.3 x 2008 earnings? Unbelieveable.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the Brus.

VillagePeople"

gogogoo 11 september 2007 13:23

quote:
ron banged schreef:
[quote=Downhill]
[quote=bernardo1960]
Wat positiefs.

Op de uur grafiek is Crucell vanaf de laatste top uit gebroken en gisteren geslaagde terug test gedaan.
Op de dag grafiek is er ruimte tot rond de 15,40.

[/quote]

9-11 is hier in Europa bijna halverwege. Als er in de VS niets gebeurt zal het morgen al snel beter gaan. Dan alleen nog focus op de huizenmarkt.

Hopelijk trekt ook dat aan en dan kan crucell hard gaan.

gr.DH
[/quote]
High yesterday was 14.66, today it topped out at 14.64. So it hasn't proved anything today, it is still firmly in a downtrend, short, medium and long term. Crucell is up less than the AMS market as a whole. And as anybody has noticed, often Crucell cruises along until the end of the day and then collapses. As they say on CNBC, the closing hour, the most important hour of the day, it is how the stock finishes that matters

BTW, here is a post from Investorvillage by a guy named Village People

"Valuation

At some point the Valuation guys have to get on board. The price/share guys aren't happy. The Big Picture supporters aren't happy. Maybe the Valuation people can get excited.

Crucell is trading for 3.3 times 2008 earnings. How can that be? Well, anything is possible considering there are many of us who bought in about 2002 when the stock was trading for 3 times less than cash on hand.

The estimates I've seen for 2008 revenues are in the $390 million range (http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/S&P+Equity+Research+Upgrades+Crucell+N.V.+ADS+(CRXL)+to+Buy/2920635.html). Management itself has stated 30%+ growth (hold your breath?). 65 million shares outstanding at current market value gives a 3.3 times 2008 earnings valuation.

#1 This company MUST start making a profit. Management has f--d off too long.

Hopefully it is inevitable that profit will be forthcoming.

Brus: Clown in a Monkey suit. Period. Cute guy, nice curly hair, very expensive suits, Extremely overpaid. I prefer substance over fluff.

Kruimer: Can't see the forest for the trees. Touts his GE experience. HUGE difference, GE makes a gigantic Profit then buys companies, manages them with expertise and reaps the rewards.

Crucell does not make a profit and does not have the management expertise to run itself, much less a company it takes over. Get a clue. Stop buying companies and the resulting dilution.

I stated under a different nom de plume long, long ago on the "other" board, when Crucell had less than 200 employees, Fire everyone except a secretary and a real salesperson. Make a profit in investment income from cash on hand. Wait for the licensing companies to bring products to market using Crucell technology. Make huge profit. This wisdom would surely have done us better in the past 2+ years than management's current "strategy". My dad taught me long ago that bigger is not necessarily better.

Key: Make Profit. Then re-invest wisely.

Valuation 3.3 x 2008 earnings? Unbelieveable.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the Brus.

VillagePeople"

What a load of bullshit. Please read it yourself.

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 14:11

Gogogoo

"What a load of bullshit. Please read it yourself."

Nice try, which part is bullshit?

First of, I posted it to let it be known that Brus is not universally loved. I have stated in the past...in 2005 Crucell burned 15 million euro for the WHOLE YEAR. They have burned 27 million so far this year. They could have issued 4 million shares in 2005, and that would have covered cash burn for 6 years. Instead they decided to turn into Berna, which they have successfully done, along with the total disinterest of the Street, the squandered goodwill, the false pumping of timelines, and the share turnover decline, from 600K day to 340K day...this with 50% more shares.

The only problem with the post from Village People is that what he is actually stating is that Crucell's market cap is trading at 3.3 times next years revenues, not earnings.

George W Brus blundered, and refuses to acknowledge it, or fix it.

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 16:20

Ik beheers heel goed Engels, maar ik zou het toch een stuk leuker vinden als Nederlands weer de voertaal zou worden.

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 17:26

quote:
ron banged schreef:
High yesterday was 14.66, today it topped out at 14.64. So it hasn't proved anything today, it is still firmly in a downtrend, short, medium and long term. Crucell is up less than the AMS market as a whole. And as anybody has noticed, often Crucell cruises along until the end of the day and then collapses. As they say on CNBC, the closing hour, the most important hour of the day, it is how the stock finishes that matters

Seems we are closing day high ;-). Still too low in my opinion.

Het lijkt erop dat we dag hoog sluiten. Nog steeds te laag mijns inziens.

Gr. DH

RT 14.70

[verwijderd] 11 september 2007 19:10

[/quote]

Seems we are closing day high ;-). Still too low in my opinion.

Het lijkt erop dat we dag hoog sluiten. Nog steeds te laag mijns inziens.

Gr. DH

RT 14.70
[/quote]

Yes, nice close today. Above yesterdays high.
BTW, don't get me wrong, as posted earlier on this thread, at some point just the shear revenue projections could start to move the price, regardless of whether or not George W Brus gets his act together. The average market cap to sales ratio for biotechs is 8, which would put the PPS at around 26 euro. And the last quarter is the strongest for biotech. If they start doing things right, I for one will be the first one cheering. My guess is I own more shares than perhaps just a couple of other posters on this board. I believe in much in the technology, and believe they would have been better off trying to be the Microsoft of Biotech...concentrating on licensing than actual production. To continue the analogy, it would be like Microsoft deciding to start building desktops and notebooks...bad move and one that would destroy the stock price. I am frustrated by the constant mis-steps by Brus, and the fact that they
haved totally failed to do what they said they were going to do with Berna...reduce cash burn. They will burn twice as much cash this year as they did in 2005(as measured by the reduction in Cash and Cash equivalents...the true way to measure cash burn). This despite all the rhetoric by George W Brus to the contrary.

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