Silvercrest - Outperforming its Peers
- Silvercrest shares are down 37.7 percent this year, compared to a decline of over 50 percent in the Silver Miners Index (SIL).
- You will see in this chart below that, while the damage has been quite brutal for the silver miners, Silvercrest has outperformed all of its peers. Here I've compared Silvercrest to the SIL, as well as fellow Mexican miners Great Panther Silver (GPL), Endeavor Silver (EXK) and First Majestic Silver (AG), which, besides Silver Wheaton (SLW), is considered by many to be the best silver stock out there.
Silver Wheaton, with its streaming model which produces cash costs less than $6 per silver ounce, is the only silver stock that comes close to Silvercrest.
- This one chart is one example of how great of a job the management team at SilverCrest is doing.
Below are three main reasons why I believe Silvercrest has outperformed its peers and why I believe they will continue to do so going forward.
#1 Profitable, Even at Current Precious Metals Prices
- For the second quarter of 2013, Silvercrest reported cash flow from operations of $5.58 million with an impressive all-in sustaining cost per ounce of $13.26. The company sold 647K of silver equivalent ounces, putting them on track to beat their 2013 full-year estimate of 2.4 million ounces.
- The company reported net earnings of $2.87 million or .03 cents per share. You can make a strong case that the company is undervalued at current prices. The current P/E for Silvercrest is just 6.99. Analysts estimates for full-year 2014 are earnings of .21 cents a share, giving the company a forward P/E ratio of just 7.5. For comparison, Endeavor Silver has a P/E of 15.84 and First Majestic Silver has a P/E of 17.02.
- Perhaps most impressive, the company reported an average cash operating cost of just $7.80 per silver equivalent ounce for the quarter and an all-in sustaining cost per ounce of $13.26, which is well below the industry average of $22-24.
these results came with the price of silver at three-year lows of $22 an ounce. The bottom line is while most silver miners are struggling to record a profit, SilverCrest is.
#2 Massive Reserve Base and Production Upside
- SilverCrest has 37.7 million silver equivalent ounces in reserves with 16.7 million in the indicated category, plus 223 million ounces in the inferred category, for a total resource base of over 276 million silver equivalent ounces.
- The chart below will show you that the growth of SilverCrests' reserves since 2006 has been quite massive. In 2006, the company had just 17.5 million in total silver equivalent ounces. By 2013, that number has grown to the current total of 276 million, with the biggest growth spurt coming in the past year.
- SilverCrest has a current enterprise value of $145 million (Market cap of $172 million minus cash and equivalents balance of $29.6 million).
- Based on these numbers, the market is placing a value on SilverCrests' reserves of just $1.90 per silver equivalent ounce, which is lower than the industry average of $3-5 an ounce.
*St. Elena Expansion Upside
- As on June 30, 2013, 65 percent of the budgeted 2013 capital cost has been committed, with the expansion on time and on budget. The scheduled mill start up date is January 2013. A total of $16 million remains in the Santa Elena expansion after 2013, with $66 million budgeted for 2013.
- With working capital of $41.6 million and an undrawn line of credit of $40 million available, the company has more than enough money to complete this expansion without having to issue equity or taking on debt.
- Pre-feasibility results for the Santa Elena expansion were released in April 2013. Results of the study were very positive, even using base-case prices of $1,250 gold and $19 silver. At these prices, the project carries a Net Present Value of $108.7 (Discount of 5 percent) and an internal rate of return of 49 percent, which is very high. Payback is just 1.7 years, which is outstanding.
- With gold at $1,450 and silver at $28, however, the project carries a NPV of $223 million (Discount of 5 percent) with a super-high IRR of 88 percent and a payback of just 1.1 years! If you think precious metals prices will get back to these levels, like I do, then the best is yet to come for Santa Elena.
The expansion production profile is listed below.