SNSN schreef op 11 juni 2014 15:08:
[...]
These are only few points may help you (read old writings for more details):
Highly undervalued kpn (fair value is around ~4.0) is a unique market-/credit-risk neutral fund (beta ~ -0.3, and default probability is almost zero) NOT correlated with highly overvalued (relatively to real economy) aex and other indices. The upwards potentials are much higher, than the downside risk which is very restricted ("synthetic option" from CS).
As you understand, such funds become even more attractive (for investors) when some increase in market volatility and corrections for indices may be expected...
When you talk about performance, also comparing its dynamics, don’t forget the role of e-plus (last figures do not include it). Again, take a look at the (possible) improved financials after completing of e-plus deal (the prob for that deal to be approved is quite high).
As for the “takeover”, don’t worry, really it was never on the table yet... (imaginary CS “offer” was a trivial tactical play to unlock kpn value - take a look at old posts still from last Aug 2013). So, any possible “real takeover” is not actually priced in yet... (accept “CS option“), although because of many reasons the prob for kpn to be really taken over is not too high.