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World's Biggest Pension Fund Loses $64 Billion Amid Equity Rout
Anna Kitanaka
@onlyanna100
Shigeki Nozawa
November 30, 2015 — 8:57 AM CET Updated on November 30, 2015 — 9:09 AM CET
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GPIF lost 8 trillion yen on Japanese, foreign stock holdings
Fund posts worst return in comparable data starting 2008
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The world’s biggest pension fund posted its worst quarterly loss since at least 2008 after a global stock rout in August and September wiped $64 billion off the Japanese asset manager’s investments.
The 135.1 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund lost 5.6 percent last quarter as the value of its holdings declined by 7.9 trillion yen, according to documents released Monday in Tokyo. That’s the biggest percentage drop in comparable data starting from April 2008. The fund lost 8 trillion yen on its domestic and foreign equities and 241 billion yen on overseas debt, while Japanese bonds handed GPIF a 302 billion yen gain.
The loss was GPIF’s first since doubling its allocation to stocks and reducing debt last October, and highlights the risk of sharp short-term losses that come with the fund’s more aggressive investment style. Fund executives have argued that holding more shares and foreign assets is a better approach as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks to spur inflation that would erode the purchasing power of bonds.

“Short term market moves lead to gains and losses, but over the 14 years since we started investing, the overall trend is upwards,” Hiroyuki Mitsuishi, a councilor at GPIF, said at a press conference in Tokyo. “Don’t evaluate the results over the short term, as looking over the long term is important.”
Passive Investments
GPIF had 39 percent of its assets in Japanese debt at Sept. 30, and 21 percent in the nation’s equities, according to the statement. That compares with 38 percent and 23 percent three months earlier, respectively. The fund had 22 percent of its investments in foreign stocks at the end of September, and 14 percent in overseas bonds.
The retirement fund’s stock investments are largely passive, meaning returns typically track benchmark gauges. GPIF’s Japan equities slid 13 percent, the same decline posted by the Topix index, as China’s yuan devaluation and concern about the potential impact if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates roiled global markets. The fund lost 11 percent on its foreign equity holdings. Shares have rebounded since Sept. 30, with the Topix climbing 12 percent.
The fund can hedge its foreign-exchange risk if needed, Mitsuishi said, while declining to comment on whether GPIF had, or plans to start doing so.
Japanese Bonds
GPIF’s 0.6 percent return on Japanese debt compares with an 0.9 percent advance on a Bloomberg gauge of the nation’s sovereign bonds during the period. The fund’s foreign debt investments lost 1.3 percent during the quarter, as the yen strengthened 2.2 percent.
GPIF hadn’t posted a quarterly loss since the three months through March 2014. The most recent results included returns from a portfolio of government bonds issued to finance a fiscal investment and loan program, with GPIF providing such figures since 2008. If those are stripped out, the drop was the fund’s third-worst on record, exceeded only by declines in the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis and the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund lost 4.9 percent in the third quarter, with equity investments sliding 8.6 percent, its manager said on Oct. 28.
The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board delivered a 1.6 percent gain in the same period, with the fund’s President Mark Wiseman crediting diversification across assets and geographies for the result. It held about 51 percent of its portfolio in public and private equities, 29 percent in fixed income and about 20 percent in real estate and infrastructure investments.
“Compared to our past portfolio, swings in returns have become wider,” Mitsuishi said. “But in the long-term view, we see there’s less risk of failing to meet pension payouts with the new portfolio.”
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US anti dumping investigation on Vietnamese steel pipes groundless - Ministry

Xinhua citing a Vietnamese official reported that the investigation launched by the United States' Department of Commerce over the dumping of welded steel pipes from five countries, including Vietnam, is groundless

Mr Le Hai Binh, spokesperson of Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told a regular press briefing here that Vietnamese companies are operating in accordance with the market mechanism without subsidies from the Vietnamese government and do not dump their products in the US market.

He said “The US side should handle the issue in an objective manner in line with trade liberalization and in accordance with commitments to multi-lateral trade liberalization as well as the growing trade ties between Vietnam and the US.

In late October, several US steel pipe producers proposed US trade regulators to impose anti-dumping duties on certain welded steel pipes from five countries, including Vietnam.

Source : Xinhua
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Mr Mobius warns of waning steel demand in China

CNBC reported that veteran emerging markets investor Mr Mark Mobius has warned of a worse-than-expected slowdown in Chinese steel production, highlighting the risks to the country's economy and the losses that could be felt in the sector.

Mr Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group, said that while he is bullish on China's energy and metal consumption long term, he recognised that demand may not meet previous expectations of various commodity-producing firms, which may have overestimated demand growth from China and other parts of the world."

He said “The demand for iron ore is of particular significance to China, which holds 50 percent of the world's share of crude steel production. Of course we expect that share could decline as China's economy becomes more consumer-oriented and less dependent on infrastructure for growth while other countries such as India enter a period of high infrastructure development.”

Mr Mobius said he saw growth in Chinese consumption of consumer products such as cosmetics, where he said annual sales growth of beauty and personal care products has been outpacing global cosmetic sales growth. He predicted this will help drive economic growth in China going forward.

With China producing 800 million tons of steel a year - four times more than any other country has ever produced—the sector is in severe overcapacity of some 400 million tons as construction slows in the world's second largest economy. Apparent steel consumption in China fell 5.7 percent to 591 million tons in the first 10 months of the year, according to the China Iron & Steel Association, the nation's leading industry group.

Mr Mobius stepped back from the position of lead portfolio manager on the USD 2.27 billion Templeton Emerging Market Investment Trust after over 25 years this summer, handing the reins to colleague Mr Carlos Hardenberg. He remains a manager on the trust and leader of Templeton Emerging Market Group, an arm of US asset manager, Franklin Templeton.

Source : CNBC
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Chinese steel mills unliklet to cut production - Macquarie

Bloomberg reported that Macquarie’s commodities analysts have been to China recently and they’ve come back gloomy. The bank has previously highlighted the steel industry as a poster child for commodities woes, with particular emphasis on overcapacity in China. In the face of slumping metals prices, the pressure is on miners and producers to cut supply. Unfortunately for global commodities prices, a chunk of the world’s metals producers seem reluctant to do so even in the face of losses.

Why would Chinese steel mills maintain production in the face of low or nonexistent profitability?

Macquarie has a few thoughts.

It said “For a start, analysts led by Colin Hamilton point out that steel mills have been pulling some levers to offset losses. Those levers include encouraging traders to prepay for purchases and, putting it diplomatically, attempted VAT evasion among small and private mills. Such measures have mitigated the effect of lower steel prices.”

Other dynamics are at play, too.

“Our speakers generally thought any capacity closure is extremely difficult and that few closures are actually urgent at the moment for a number of reasons. One of them is that we have constantly heard that local governments simply wouldn’t allow steel mills to be closed down for the sake of local employment and fiscal income. … It was also emphasized that mills are concerned about losing market shares and having to spend fresh capital to resume operation if they stop producing now. It’s therefore a prisoner’s dilemma that has prevented some capacity from being shut down. It can actually be argued that banks are also part of this game–as mentioned by a steel trader, banks have been pushing mills to stay in the market so they don’t have to admit large bad loans; the iron ore trader also said that for some mills, loan renewal for next year has already been completed, which means the seasonal tightness in liquidity towards year-end may not be as tough as we imagined.”

They concluded “It was thus quite gloomy to hear that the Chinese mills would just keep producing no matter how much their losses get. However, in our opinion, while all the factors mentioned above underline the stickiness of Chinese steel production, they still have their own limits, and sticking to them risks underestimating the pace of potential capacity exits.”

Source : Bloomberg
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ThyssenKrupp CEO rules out sale of units – Report

Reuters reported that Thyssenkrupp CEO Mr Heinrich Hiesinger rules out selling profitable units like elevators, plant construction or automotive components, when asked by the Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung whether this could be an option

He told "We can achieve more as an integrated company.”

When asked about a potential disposal of its steel operations, Hiesinger reiterates that Thyssenkrupp would take advantage of any opportunities should the European steel market consolidate

He says the "Made in Germany" label still has a good reputation in China despite the Volkswagen scandal

Thyssenkrupp's management has reportedly come under pressure from 15 percent shareholder Cevian to break up the company

Source : Reuters
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Moody's sees profitability of Asian steel companies continue to fall in 2016

Moody's Investors Service has kept negative outlook for Asian steel companies as it expects fall in profitability for the steelmakers to continue, with oversupply and weakening demand in China further weakening prices of the commodity.

The report quoted Jiming Zou, a Moody's vice president and senior analyst as saying that "Slow property investment, modest infrastructure spending and lackluster manufacturing will reduce Chinese steel demand by about 5% in 2016. At the same time, declining Chinese demand will lead to an increase in the Chinese steelmakers' exports, pressuring already low prices and thereby the profitability of the region's major steelmakers.”

The agency further noted that the lower raw material prices will be unable to offset steel price declines.

Moody's outlook is driven by China -- the region's largest consumer and producer of steel, whose economic slowdown and reforms mute the industry's demand-growth prospects. China's net exports surged to 12% of total domestic production in the first eight months of 2015 from 10% in 2014 and 6% in 2013, against the backdrop of declining domestic demand.

By region, Moody's expects Chinese steelmakers' EBITDA per tonne to continue fall in 2016, after declining considerably in 2015, as declining demand outpaces capacity reductions.

The profitability of Japanese and Korean steelmakers will remain pressured by sluggish domestic demand and steel price declines in overseas market.

However, for Japanese steelmakers, the weak yen supports producers' cost structure, partly mitigating the negative pressures. In the case of Korean steelmakers, a recovery in the domestic housing market will benefit long steel producers.

And although Indian steelmakers will also see their profitability fall in 2016, their profitability will remain higher than that of other Asian steelmakers, owing to the country's rising demand and captive iron ore mines.

Moody's further notes that the profitability for most of the steel companies it rates in Asia will exceed the regional average, because they are market leaders in their home countries, sell high-margin products, and benefit from business integration and diversification

Source : Business Standard
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CISA rejects blame for global steel overcapacity

The China Iron and Steel Industry Association has rejected international industry claims that a global glut in supplies is the direct result of robust growth in Chinese steel exports. Mr Wang Liqun, the CISA's vice-chairman, said it strongly disagreed with a joint statement by nine foreign counterparts that claimed the Chinese steel industry is the predominant global contributor to the world's steel industry suffering a crisis of overcapacity".

In a statement on Wednesday, Mr Wang said China's steel industry has become a victim of trade protectionism. He said the international industry's collective behavior amounted to unnecessary steel industry conflict, and that the statement was actually beyond the normal remits of such associations, regardless of the fact the sector had entered what must be considered one of the most competitive periods in its history.

He said "To simply attribute the difficulties in one country or region to Chinese enterprises is irresponsible. It does not solve the difficulties facing the industry and does little to promote the healthy development of the global steel market."

He said the nine associations also published what he described as a perfunctory statement without any prior communication with China.

The CISA's stance, he said, was that while overcapacity remains a common issue globally, solutions require concerted efforts by all parties working together.

The rival associations?from countries including the United States, Canada and Brazil?released the statement earlier this month, expressing opposition to China's ongoing trade practices and claiming they had contravened World Trade Organization rules.

Source : China Daily
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Ms Tanners of Bank of America sees steel price recovery in USA in 2016

benzinga.com reported that Ms Timna Tanners of Bank of America is expecting 2016 benchmark US hot rolled coil to average $455/short ton, marking an increase from current spot prices of around $375 to $390 per ton as Ms Tanners suggested that minimills will prove to be the "more attractive" investment option. Ms Tanners previously projected HRC prices would rise to $475/t in 2016.

Her revised focus was attributed to a lower base than previously expected given the "recent market implosion." The analyst added that her China steel team is now forecasting a decline of 1.2 percent in global demand growth through 2016, but net exports will remain high at 91 million mt versus 96 million mt expected in 2015.

According to Ms Tanners, minimills will "increasingly be the more attractive investment" option heading into 2016 as the integrateds (such as US Steel and AK Steel) will only see a near-term boost from trad case and mill price hike headlines. However, the price hikes may prove to be insufficient to enable the integrateds to return to profitability.

Ms Tanners added that both US Steel and AK Steel face lower annual contract pricing on 25-33 percent of shipments next year. In addition to that, US Steel will likely face liquidity issues in 2017 given a $450 million maturity mid 2017 and another $500 million maturity in early 2018.

Ms Tanners also noted that Nucor Corporation is the "wild card" heading into 2016 as it is uncertain if it will use the projected $2.2 billion in free cash flow it will generate in 2015 for any accretive activity.

Source : benzinga.com
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Vale moving ahead on 90 million tonnes Serra Sul SD 11 iron ore mine

Duluth News Tribune reported that Brazilian based Vale mining company says that, despite the free-fall of iron ore prices, it is moving ahead with construction of its Sera Sul mine with a goal of producing iron ore in late 2016.

Vale says the new $19.4 billion mine will produce 90 million tons of iron ore annually, or more than double the roughly 38 million tons of finished ore all Minnesota operations combined produced last year.

Vale is cutting back iron ore production at its existing mines in the meantime, riding out the low prices, but the company will be able to produce more than 400 million tons of ore annually when Sera Sul opens.

The company currently has an estimated production cost of $12.70 per ton. It expects that to drop to about $10 per ton at Sera Sul where, according to miningtechnology.com, Vale will use truckless technology for the project in order to fully replace its in-mine trucks, a move expected to reduce fuel consumption by an estimated 77 percent.

Source : Duluth News Tribune
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Cliffs Natural Resources and ArcelorMittal amend Empire iron ore pact

Cliffs Natural Resources entered into an "Amended Restated Empire Iron Ore Partnership Agreement" during 2014 with ArcelorMittal. The details of the agreement were confidential and only recently did the financial impact of the agreement find its way into 10-Q filings. The first details of the financial impact were reported in the 10-Q for the period ending June 30, 2015.

The text read “ArcelorMittal has a unilateral right to put its interest in the Empire mine to us, but has not exercised this right to date. Furthermore, as part of the 2014 Extension Agreement that was entered into among ArcelorMittal and the Company, which amended certain terms of the Restated Empire Iron Mining Partnership Agreement, certain minimum distributions of the partners' equity amounts are required to be made on a quarterly basis beginning in the first quarter of 2015 and will continue through the first quarter of 2017. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2015, we recorded distributions of $31.7 million to ArcelorMittal under this agreement of which $17.1 million was paid as of June 30, 2015.”

The 10-Q for the period ending March 31, 2015, contained this language “ArcelorMittal has a unilateral right to put its interest in the Empire mine to us, but has not exercised this right to date.”

Source : Tele Trader
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Vessel to send first iron shipment from Ms Rinehart's Roy Hill project to arrive soon

WA Today reported that an iron ore carrier is on its way to collect the first shipment from Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill project. A Roy Hill spokesman confirmed a vessel was on the way and would be arriving shortly. For Mrs Rinehart, Roy Hill's first shipment would represent the culmination of her long-held dream to own a producing iron ore mine.

It is understood the first shipment of ore will go to South Korea's Posco, one of the minority owners of the project, and will be the first of continuous shipments from the Pilbara mine.

Roy Hill is 70 per cent owned by Mrs Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting, with the remaining 30 per cent held by Posco, Marubeni Corporation and China Steel Corporation.

On Sunday, Mrs Rinehart met the first trainload of iron ore from the project as it arrived in Port Hedland. Stockpiles began being built at the port this week.

An original September 30 deadline for the first shipment from the project was not met, sparking fierce speculation in Perth mining circles the project had encountered significant problems constructing and commissioning its pivotal ore processing plant and would not ship until early next year.

The market is keenly awaiting Roy Hill to enter production, as other Pilbara miners compete to deliver the lowest operating costs in the face of depressed prices and softening demand from China.

Source : WA Today

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Brazil to sue BHP and Vale for BRL 20 billion for Samarco accident

Brazil's federal and state governments plan to sue the owners of the Samarco iron ore miner for 20 billion reais ($A7.25 billion) in damages caused by the burst of a tailings pond dam, Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira has told reporters.

Teixeira said the suit will be filed on Monday.

The proceeds will be used for environmental cleanup in the Rio Doce valley.

Samarco is a joint venture between the world's largest mining company, Australia's BHP Billiton Ltd , and the biggest iron ore miner, Vale SA . The dam burst earlier this month, unleashing 60 million cubic metres of mud and mine waste that devastated a village, killed at least 13 people and polluted a major river.

Source : Reuters
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www.voicechronicle.com/60076-04-socie...
Societe Generale Analysts Give ArcelorMittal SA a €9.00 Price Target (MT)

ArcelorMittal SA logoArcelorMittal SA (EPA:MT) has been given a €9.00 ($9.89) price objective by Societe Generale in a report issued on Wednesday, MarketBeat reports. The firm currently has a a “buy” rating on the stock.

MT has been the subject of a number of other research reports. JPMorgan Chase & Co. set a €7.30 ($8.02) target price on ArcelorMittal SA and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a report on Friday, September 18th. Deutsche Bank set a €7.00 ($7.69) price objective on ArcelorMittal SA and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research note on Wednesday, October 21st. HSBC set a €8.80 ($9.67) target price on ArcelorMittal SA and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Wednesday, September 23rd. Independent Research GmbH set a €5.70 ($6.26) price objective on ArcelorMittal SA and gave the company a “neutral” rating in a report on Thursday, September 24th. Finally, BNP Paribas set a €5.00 ($5.49) target price on ArcelorMittal SA and gave the stock a “sell” rating in a report on Thursday, October 15th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, three have issued a hold rating and five have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of €6.82 ($7.49).

Shares of ArcelorMittal SA (EPA:MT) opened at 5.482 on Wednesday. ArcelorMittal SA has a 12 month low of €4.43 and a 12 month high of €10.63. The stock has a 50 day moving average price of €18.85 and a 200 day moving average price of €18.85.

ArcelorMittal SA is a Luxembourg-based business active in the steel and mining industry. Its divisions include Flat Carbon Americas; Flat Carbon Europe, Long Carbon Americas and Europe; Asia, Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (EPA:MT) (AACIS), and Supply Alternatives. The Business ‘s portfolio of products includes concluded, semi-finished, long and flat products, such as slabs, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, coated steel products, tinplate and heavy plate, as well as billets, blooms, rebars, wire rod, sections, rails, sheet piles and drawn cable. Its products can be bought to the steel-consuming sectors including appliances, pipes and tubes, building, packaging and automotive, heavy machines. It manages through numerous subsidiaries in the United States, Canada, Brazil, France, Germany, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, South Africa, and others.document.write(‘‘);
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Japanese steel scrap exports surge in October

Scrap Monster reported that the steel scrap exports by Japan during the month of October recovered from previous month lows, as per the latest data released by the country’s Ministry of Finance. According to MoF data, the country’s scrap exports totaled 639,000 tons during the month.

The exports were up sharply by 9.4% when compared with the exports during the same month a year before. The country’s steel scrap exports during October last year had totaled 584,000 tons. The Japanese steel scrap exports jumped higher significantly when compared with the previous month. The exports were up by 28.1% when matched with the exports of 499,000 tons during September this year.

The largest importer of Japanese scrap during the month of October this year was South Korea. The scrap imports by South Korea totaled 220,000 tons, constituting nearly 35% of the total scrap exports by Japan during the month. The scrap exports to South Korea dropped by nearly 17.9% over the previous year. Japan had exported 268,000 tons of scrap to South Korea during October 2014. In second place was China with scrap steel imports from Japan totaling to 177,000 tons. The exports to China increased marginally by 5.3% year-on-year. The other main importers of Japanese steel scrap were Vietnam (158,000 tons, up sharply by 102.6%) and Taiwan (43,000 tons, down 34.2%).

The cumulative scrap exports by Japan during the initial ten-month period of the year totaled 6.56 million tons.

The country’s steel scrap export for the whole year 2015 is estimated at 7.90 million tons.

Source : Scrap Monster
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Metinvest to sign stand still agreement with banks on Nov 30

Metinvest, Ukraine's largest private mining and steel group, plans by the end of November 2015 to sign an agreement with creditor banks on their refusal to make claims in connection with certain present and future events of default (a stand-still agreement) until January 31, 2016

Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov has said at a briefing in Kyiv that “We plan to sign a stand-still agreement by November 30.”

According to him, negotiations on the long-term restructuring of debts with creditors are continuing, including with banks and eurobond holders.

Mr Ryzhenkov noted that the company continues to pay interest on its obligations to all creditors, except for the shareholders' loans.

Source : Interfax
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Philippine firms deny dumping steel pipes in US

Philippine Daily Inquirer reported that the 2 Philippine exporters identified in the antidumping petition lodged by American steel pipe manufacturers denied having exported such products to the United States, according to the Department of Trade and Industry.

Mr Luis M Catibayan, director at the DTI’s Bureau of Import Services (BIS), said in an interview with the Inquirer Friday that “We checked with them and they denied having exported steel pipes to the US. This is probably a case of circumvention… maybe exporters from other countries that are required to pay antidumping duties in the US evaded payments by misdeclaring the origin and exporter of their steel pipe shipments,”

According to Mr Catibayan, the DTI will submit to US authorities the information they obtained from the Philippine exporters identified in the petition.

The DTI and the exporters will then have to wait for the US government to come out with the results of the investigation before taking further action.

Last week, the US announced that it was investigating the Philippines and four other countries for allegedly “dumping” circular welded carbon quality steel pipes, after four American manufacturers claimed these imports were causing material injury to their industry. In a notice, the US Department of Commerce said it had initiated the antidumping duty investigations of imports of circular welded carbon-quality steel pipe from Oman, Pakistan, the Philippines, United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam and a countervailing duty (CVD) investigation of imports of the same merchandise from Pakistan. The petitioners for these investigations were identified as Bull Moose Tube Co. (Chesterfield, MO); EXLTUBE (N. Kansas City, MO); Wheatland Tube (Chicago, IL); and Western Tube and Conduit (Long Beach, CA).

Source : Philippine Daily Inquirer
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Megasteel defends its petition for trade protection

The Star reported that Malaysian Megasteel Sdn Bhd has defended its request to the Government to impose 40% safeguard duties on the imports of hot rolled coils after the Malaysian Iron and Steel Industry Federation slammed its petition.

The country’s largest HRC producer said in a statement that it had the right to seek trade remedy measures against HRC imports which are causing serious injury to the local HRC industry in Malaysia. It said “The petition seeks to provide an equitable and level playing field for the local producers of HRC in the country.”

Megasteel, which is 78.9% owned by Lion Corp Bhd, said that since the petition was still under consideration by the International Trade and Industry Ministry, all parties should refrain from making judgments on the merits of the petition.

It said “We believe Miti will evaluate the petition and make its decision in the best interests of the local HRC industry and the nation.”

It added “The low anti-dumping duty rates were however, unable to effectively deter cheap imports. This had led to deterioration of demand for local HRC towards the end of the financial year compounded by the weakening market sentiments.”

That led Megasteel to petition the Government in July 2015 for a safeguard duty. It was reported that Megasteel had asked for safeguard duties to be imposed on the imports of HRC at the rate of 40%, on top of the existing 15% import duties on HRC, with the rate gradually reduced over a four-year period.

In September, the Government announced that it has begun a safeguard investigation on imports of HRC. Preliminary determination would be made within 90 days from the starting date of the investigation.

Source : The Star
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