Tussen de persoonlijke vetes die uitgevochten worden op Ihub, toch een mooie post van Todmohr die wat vertrouwen kan geven:
I rarely read the LWLG board any longer, sadly.
When I do return, though very infrequently, I see the same core messages from the naysayers dominating nearly all the conversation: primarily that LWLG’s stock price is excessively over-priced for an essentially pre-revenue company. I am not a koolaid drinker as I’ve noted many times, but I also have learned to “pay attention” to what the market is signaling, or telling me.
I’ve been investing for 40 years, with the last 20 a period where I researched and invested in many micro-caps from the OTC - thus I have a lot of experience with real companies in this arena, as well as pumping scams.
LWLG’s stock price has traded convincingly between $4-$6 in recent months, and $4-$8/$9 for the past two years. This is not a debatable or an arguable statement - it is fact/truth. It has maintained this trading range in the face of the worst nasdaq bear market since the Great Recession - and doing so with dramatic interest rate hikes not seen in 30/40 years (normally an absolute killer for pre-revenue companies).
In this same time frame, many mega-cap and big caps I own fell 30-50% as well. Thus, LWLG losing 66% of its value from its “genuine” top of $15 should not be construed as some terrible harbinger regarding the company’s future - but some here are using this pullback as one of the legs of their negative thesis. If the likes of Google and MSFT, among many others, can fall 30%-50% during this very same period - which they did - LWLG’s retracement does not seem excessive or ridiculous at all. It’s relative price strength, in fact, is compelling considering what transpired the past two years in the market.
The other cornerstone of the argument by the doubters is the fact that this was an OTC pump and is now being supported by a “naive retail cult.” In my 20 years of extensive OTC investing, I have never ever seen an OTC stock get pumped for more than 3-6 months - and a huge majority of these pumps lasted no more than a few days or weeks at most (one month representing an extended pump).
Consequently, inferring and perpetuating the idea - as is done on this board very frequently - that the naive retail trading community could support a pump of this price magnitude for 2-2 1/2 years is truly grasping at straws in my view. Do these extended pump situations transpire very occasionally, yes, but again in my experience I’ve never seen it at the OTC level.
Lastly, the doubters continue to espouse the current price range as a signal that the market and investment community don’t believe the company is anywhere near commercially viable products or significant revenues. Nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion - in fact, the price action validates belief that LWLG is close to meaningful revenue (likely 1-2 years as management has stated). If the market and investment community didn’t believe this to be the case, I believe the stock would have been back below $2 or $1 sometime ago.
The doubters position is well established, as it is repeated almost everyday with a slightly different spin. Perhaps those who believe the stock is significantly overvalued, could simply step aside and wait for the stock to either break to new lows or wait for a break out higher. Is it necessary to hear the same diatribe daily?
Whether the doubters like it or not, the market and investment community are telling them their doubts are unfounded (at least for now) - and the market has been sending this same definitive message for two plus years.
Best,
Tod