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Nokia December

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Ralph01A
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Hier een link waar ze er een waarde aan hangen: 4,5 billion dollar, oftewel een stijging tov huidige koers van 1,20 dollar (15% upside):

www.trefis.com/stock/nok/articles/218...

However, despite possessing a strong portfolio, Nokia has not been able to monetize its patents as well as Qualcomm has in the past. At the current revenue run rate, Nokia’s IP licensing arm will generate about 500 million Euros ($685 million) in royalty income this year. We estimate that about 1.8 billion mobile phones will have been shipped globally in 2013, which at an estimated average selling price of about Euro 100 ($135) would account for about 1.8 billion Euros ($240 billion) in revenues this year. This brings Nokia’s royalty rate to about 0.25% for every handset that is sold globally. In comparison, Qualcomm collects a licensing fee of about 3.2% on the ASP of each device containing its technology.

The reason why Nokia’s royalty rate is so low is that it has historically never used its patents to generate revenues, unlike Qualcomm. When Nokia had its handset business, it was more concerned about protecting its IP for use in its devices as well as cross-licensing them so as to reduce its costs of licensing rivals’ patents. As a result, Nokia has only licensed out about 10% of its patent portfolio, which are standard-essential and are required to be licensed to others at fair and reasonable rates. On the other hand, Qualcomm doesn’t sell mobile phones and is therefore able to license out the breadth of its patent portfolio to handset manufacturers. As a result, while Qualcomm has over 250 patent licensees paying it recurring annual royalties currently, Nokia has only about 40. [3]

With the sale of its mobile device business though, Nokia is free to license the rest of its patents as well as bring more of its erstwhile handset rivals under the fold of its essential patents. It also faces less danger of being countersued, and should therefore have greater bargaining power in setting patent licensing terms going forward. If the overall handset market grows to about $300 billion in the long-term (25% ahead of our 2013 estimate) and Nokia is able to reach a royalty rate of 1% as it aggressively pursues patent licensing deals, it could be generating about $3 billion in royalty revenues alone going forward. Assuming an EBITDA margin of 85% (as related costs would be very low) and a tax rate of 20% (Finland’s corporate tax rate from 2014), Nokia could be adding another $1.2 billion to its cash flows from patent licensing deals going forward. By our estimates, such a scenario could add another $4.5 billion to Nokia’s valuation, or about $1.20 per share. This implies a 15% upside to our price estimate

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Nielix
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quote:

deelaan schreef op 2 januari 2014 14:29:

Een mooi jaar gewenst met succesvolle beurswinsten mannen, vrouw(en).
MVG
Insgelijks, en een goede beslissing om nokia vast te houden, de aanhouders winnen!
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quote:

Nielix schreef op 2 januari 2014 14:40:

[...]

Insgelijks, en een goede beslissing om nokia vast te houden, de aanhouders winnen!
Nu kijken naar 2014 en wat het ons gaat brengen. De eerst dag is nog niet zo positief. Van $8.15 naar $7.95, maar de jaar is nog erg jong.

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