ASML « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

altijdwat schreef op 17 juni 2015 13:57:

@elf : hebben ze je, voor wat betreft de jaarresultaten, ooit teleurgesteld dan.....?

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SNSN schreef op 17 juni 2015 14:03:

Hi 'elf',

You probably forgot that current so-called "winstverwachtingen" (and price formation expectations) are still based (i.e. are conditional) on "tax-advantages" which 'asml' received in the NL & EU.

"....Last year ASML made a profit of 1.3 billion euros and paid 77 million to income tax. That is roughly 6 percent, while the income tax in the Netherlands is 25 percent. In 2012 and 2013 the company paid less than 1 percent of income tax in the Netherlands....".

That is almost ~0.25 billion euros less than 'asml' had to pay last year ....

"....ASML also makes use of the so called innovation-box tax scheme in the Netherlands, which aims to stimulate inventions and patents in the Netherlands. A company that makes profit from an innovation only hast to pay 5 percent income tax, instead of 25 percent. Because ASML makes use of both this tax scheme and the Belgium tax scheme, it cost the Dutch tax Authorities hundreds of millions of dollars over a number of years...."


So far, it's the other NL "tax-payers" who actually heavily contribute to the 'asml' future "winstverwachtingen", dividends, share "buy-back programs" contributing to "bubble pumping" (which may in this case look like actually "price manipulation").

The prob is really high that it can't stay for a long time any more.... The reg would certainly interfere ..., resulting in well predicted consequences for highly overvalued stock.

PS. As for today business, the crucial (decision) point at the moment is M-(95.65)... We are testing it right now....checking the way towards S1=95.13 (see post above)

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elf schreef op 17 juni 2015 14:22:

[...]

Dat soort overwegingen kan uiteraard in in aanmerking worden genomen doch wat andere taxpayers zouden moeten ´lijden´ in deze redenering kan een belegger als zodanig geheel koud laten en bovendien is deze situatie al zodanig lang bekend en gedoogd en bovendien niet al te zeer nadelig voor betrokkenen dat op korte o zelfs langere termijn enige verandering valt te verwachten terwijl dat bovendien tot gevolg zou kunnen hebben dat ASML gewoon vertrekt en dan binnen een oogwenk een dankbare gastheer elders in de wereld zou vinden.

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SNSN schreef op 17 juni 2015 15:24:

[...]

Not sure you fully realize that because of asml "tax-advantages" (see post above)

"....it's the other NL "tax-payers" who actually heavily contribute to the 'asml' future "winstverwachtingen", dividends, share "buy-back programs" contributing to "bubble pumping" (which may in this case look like actually "price manipulation")...."

it is the NL-state that is actually paying the dividends to (private) asml-investors....(though, you may say "partially")

While the "share buy-back" programs (via cash provided directly by the state via "asml tax-advantages"), directly contributing to the stock-price formation - bubble pumping, may be considered as a direct "price manipulation".... with all (possible) consequences....

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elf schreef op 17 juni 2015 16:00:

[...]

Niets is eeuwig maar zo lang de koers en de verwachtingen nog aanleiding zijn tot aankopen die deze verwachtingen wellicht niet te eniger tijd zullen belonen en de regelmatige koersstijgingen zich blijven voordoen lijkt het me nuttig daarin mee te lopen en dat zal mijn tijd waarschijnlijk wel duren(zie andere forums...)

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SNSN schreef op 17 juni 2015 17:10:

[...]

The prob is reasonably high that the NL-state would need to stop paying "public contributions" to private asml-dividends....

The same is about "price manipulations" via "share buy-back" programs.... As you know, it has nothing to do with the "innovation-box tax" (used by asml for tax reduction) aiming just ".... to stimulate investments and patents in the NL..." Even a person with a very bright imagination wouldn't be able to see a "share buy-back" program .... as a tool "stimulating investments and patents in the Netherlands".

You know what it means for highly overvalued fund...

So, a ticket to the south is actually ready...., though the schedule is not fully determined yet (as big guys still need to discharge their large "longs" in bubble-stock .... locking retailers/clients at high - see old posts)

quote:

elf schreef op 17 juni 2015 17:31:

[...]

De desbetreffende signalen zullen hopelijk worden opgemerkt.

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alex2448 schreef op 18 juni 2015 12:36:

Varoufakis de man die de euro vernietigd

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altijdwat schreef op 18 juni 2015 21:18:

Zo, vanochtend nog een order ingelegd voor 93,50 euro en nog gekregen ook....wat een rare dagen. Met veel volatiliteit kun je soms leuke aankopen doen....hahaha

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elf schreef op 18 juni 2015 23:41:

[...]

NEW YORK (AFN) - De Nasdaq-index sloot donderdag dankzij de Federal Reserve op een nieuwe recordstand. De Amerikaanse centrale bank liet woensdagavond doorschemeren zijn steunbeleid door te zullen zetten ondanks signalen dat de Amerikaanse economie aan kracht wint.

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SNSN schreef op 19 juni 2015 11:18:

[...]

Just signals on... "economy strengs" (U.S. Economy at a Glance: Perspective from the BEA Accounts):

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

1st quarter 2015: -0.7 percent
4th quarter 2014: 2.2 percent

Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

That's just fully consistent with the eur/usd-rates dynamics (rising since Mar 2015) indicating markets' expectations for a delay in (basic) interest rates rise ....

Actually that's one of the reasons for "non-structural" mechanisms (effect of "financing currency") dominating (last days frequently) in 'aex' .... (otherwise, possible "grexit" expect. would lead to a dominant role of "structural" drivers in stock markets)

PS. As for 'asml', after yesterday "dragonfly doji" (just google it) active traders are (partially) covering their "shorts"..., though still looking for other indications for possible (current) sub-trend break.... before going long.... (but, take care - this is just about "very active" st-strategies, so far not for lt/mt-, and other "investors")

Pivot point: PP=94.68
Resistance: R1=96.24; R2=97.11
Support: S1=93.70

So, the d-sentiment is positive (we are well above the PP-line, and stay there after the first hour). The current trend indicator - is the "falling-top-line" determining the st-down(sub)trend since May 28. It's around ~96.70 / ~96.25 at opening / closing.... (very active profs will certainly try to break it upwards...., so that be aware opening new "st-longs" --> not to be locked up just above the "indicator")

But, take care - this is just about st-horizons...(just really active trading)