"We acknowledge AbbVie's own JAK1 inhibitor ABT-494 potentially offers the pharma better economics," Jefferies analyst Peter Welford wrote in a note to investors. Filgotinib is more advanced than ABT-494, though. ABT-494 is in Phase II dose-finding studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease, but data aren't due until late 2015 and mid-2018, respectively. AbbVie is due to make a decision on filgotinib in late September, after the release of 24-week data from the DARWIN 2 monotherapy trial.
Welford thinks AbbVie could still back out but is unlikely to do so. "We are skeptical as to the extent to which AbbVie is 'obligated' to opt-in if defined criteria are met for filgotinib, but view DARWIN data to-date to be highly competitive, raising the bar," he wrote. If AbbVie opts in, it will hand over $200 million and agree to up to $1 billion in milestones in return for rights to the drug, which could lessen its concerns about the loss of patent protection on Humira. A further $50 million awaits Galapagos if AbbVie wants to bag filgotinib for use in patients with Crohn's disease, too.
Given that the drug could be a key component of AbbVie's post-Humira future and the Big Pharma bought a $30 million stake in Galapagos earlier this year, some are predicting a bigger deal. "I think Abbvie buys the lot," Jim Mellon, a renowned British investor and co-author of biotech investment book "Cracking The Code,"