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ASML in 2015

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[verwijderd] 11 november 2015 19:26

quote:
MJansen schreef op 11 november 2015 16:08:
[...]

a) No, that's just not true. First of all, option activity is usually much higher the closer you get to expiration date. So it's not unusual to see higher nov. option activities, as the expiration is in 2 weeks.
If it was REALLY a bet for a continued downtrend, they would have bought options that are much further down the road.
Why buy nov put options, if you could also buy mar-16 options.
The stock is in a downtrend right? so in march the stock should me much lower than in november.

b) it's rising because someone is making a bet. it's just 1 party. Just 1. It doesn't say anything. I would be much more interested in short-interest, as those are the institutionals that are placing long term bets.
Options are usually short term focused small-traders.

c) Option prices are increasing because overall volatility in the market is increasing the last few days. With a high Beta, you get a large effect on a cyclical stock like ASML.

And point z) you're way too arrogant, which is preventing you from incorporating the latest information from the market. Google 'tunnel vision syndrome'. If it is too difficult to understand, read it again and again until it clicks.

Happy trading.

And also, google 'random walk'. It might also help you to learn not to look so much at historical graphics.
They mean shat

I see you did study derivatives pricing...., though seems not very attentively

a) yes indeed the 'option liquidity' is usually (systemically) rising towards expiration (and for many asset classes, but differently - can give you references to some papers) ..., and we indeed are approaching the date.

But you just missed a point - usual rising of liquidity toward the expiration is just standard "diffusion process" (you know what it is) with an "average" volatility ("liquidity volatility" not the price one).... And yesterday number (601) is really "too large" for diffusion (take a look at the percentile)

As for the 'downtrend', don't forget about trends & sub-trends, as well as, different horizons... So far if people just bet on fast money on st-horizon (and they may have a reason to do so), they take that (st) horizon on which they really expect a "fast move"....(the longer time horizon - the high uncertainties, that is the bigger "variance" which, as you know, should grow in time just proportionally to "time", at least for standard Wiener processes. So, for a "spec bet" --> short horizon --> smaller uncertainties + fast-money....

b) yes, it could be a single "spec bet" indeed (but also could be st-hedge if a party has reasons to worry).

As for "just one" party, anyway it's not too small one for "spec bets"....(take a look at average liquidity for the puts on asml..., actually "semi-instant" lack of liquidity is one of the price-jumps reasons, but not in this case).

Again, take a look at your trades - do you often buy/sell ~600 contracts per day ?

As for the 'short interest', indeed, it's important figure for a stock (also combined with liquidity).... But, as you know, on short/day-horizons the "st/d-shorts" are NOT registered ....(again, there could be a very large number of just "small shorters")

c) not exactly..., though the stock has really one of the biggest "beta" ~1.73 among aex-funds, and so far the highest 'market risk' indeed. But, don't mixed up different st/mt/lt horizons (and corresponding st/mt/lt-volatilities - they may be, and often are, very different)

And the price for the individual "stock-option" is roughly speaking proportional to the stock-price variance (i.e. to the variance of underlying asset...., not for the market), that depends upon the time horizon on which you measure it (in current case it's a short one). And if you look at the "short-term" volatility (which is often almost the same as dynamic one) for 'asml', you'll see a narrow st-rising channel - i.e. really small variance (in respect to st-drift - the st-dynamic mean) and average/low 'theoretical prices' (it's not about 'applied volatility') - that is for a "Short Horizon" (related to Nov 15 puts we discussed).

As for lt-volatility (invest horizon) for asml, it is indeed related to lt/mt-volatility for the market (because of high long/mid-term "beta")

OK, have a nice evening.

PS. And yes, as for the 'random walk', it's too complex.... Let's call it a "Wiener process" (or may be just a 'brownian motion' if you like ?)

[verwijderd] 11 november 2015 21:37

Well for me i look at short interest at stocks, as real hedge funds (with often inside information) trade this way.

It's zero at the moment.

Furthermore, you have back end (ao BESI) and front end (amsi and amsl) in yhe semiconductor business.
Backend orders are usually very short term with order lead times of often 1-3 months.
When the industry enters a downcycle, the first orders to get cancelled are back end segment companies.

Around may the speculation started that the business was entering a down turn, with the stocks of besi almost losing half of their value.
The stocks of asmi and asml responded by also entering a downtrend, as front end orders usually follow backend orders.
However, as of october it is becoming clear that companies built mussive inventories as they expected the boom market of 2014 to continue, and that inventories have almost normalised. Stock besi responded immediately by rising from 12 to 20.
atm.

And so did the stocks of asmi and asml.

And most obviously, short interest in besi decreased from 4% to 0% atm.
The shorters were technical (worldquant) and fundamental (hedgefunds).

So the fundamentally weak picture you're painting, is just not correct anymore.

Mann0 12 november 2015 10:26

Klein berichtje op Reuters, volgens mij niet veel nieuws maar toch:

www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/tm...

p.s. love the discussion guys! keep it up

[verwijderd] 12 november 2015 19:43

As was indicated yesterday, the stock has broken under the lower edge of short-term sub-up-trend formed since testing (strategic) s-zone mid Oct (read old posts). The lower (short-term) up-sub-trend border is around ~88.40 today.

So, as was indicated, the st-picture for the stock is indeed a weak one. That's why - puts, puts....

As for the 'short interest', it's a good indicator, but NOT really dynamic enough... That is, at least, because you never know about (never registered) both small & short-term "shorts", while their cumulative volume may be NOT small at all (just too many small st-shorts trading st-volatility). So, to get a clear picture - take a look at partial & cumulative p/v/t-distributions which do allow to get more info...

As for the longer horizon/picture, don't be so excited - asml is actually a very "big bubble", pumped since ~2011 (till ~Mar 2015) by ~9 "big boys", using actually all means for price/investors management / manipulation (see old posts for details). Some still continue trying to "keep/support prices", though the "pumping power" is getting weaker ....

Actually the stock's 'fair value' is just ~39.40 (measured in terms of 'old shares' before Nov 2012). This is very close to the price paid by "new main shareholders" at that time. To get the 'fair value' in terms of "new shares", you need to re-normalize it just using T&C of corp. action from Nov 2012. After the 're-normalization" exercise you'll be surprised by the figure, as it is too close to the prices that 'insiders' were cashing.... (they don't have shares any more)

PS. Referring to "fundamentals", just take a look at another "small piece" of a "nice asml-painting"..... Don't forget that the company's "good fundamentals" are (in a "good extent") due to fact that it practically doesn't pay taxes for many years - just ~(1-5)% - because of a very special "tax-exemption" reg. by state (see old posts for details). And another weak point is that the goals & objectives (as well as T&C) for special "tax-exemption", looks like, not really satisfied (see old posts for details).... Actually this could result (if proved) in a situation that looks like the company uses "public money" (not paid taxes) to reward its own (private) shareholders by i) paying/rising dividends, and ii) upwards price manipulations (shares buy-back programs). The scale of (possible) "underpaid taxes" could vary up to ~0.30-0.60 bln per year. So, you can estimate possible impact, should the company (asml) start paying taxes as other firms. But, don't also forget of possible fines, should there be proved an improper use of "tax-exemptions" proceeds.

gam gam 13 november 2015 02:10

Wie is die SNSN dan met dat rare Engels? "should the company (asml)..." Het is het ASML draadje hier, wat voor andere company dacht je dan gek? Wat een crapola zeg, eindeloos gezwam over kanaaltjes en ander zogenaamd technisch gedoe. Dat zijn van die mensen die nog steeds niet begrijpen dat technisch betekent dat je niks voorstelt. Kijk maar bijvoorbeeld bij grote bedrijven, managers verdienen een veelvoud van de techneuten.
Komt er nog een screenshotje van de positie van SNSN? Zit die sufferd short ofzo LOL!

gam gam 13 november 2015 02:15

Het enige waar ik me zorgen over maak bij ASML is dat er een nieuwe techniek komt, buiten ontwikkeld, en ASML pakt het niet snel genoeg op.

tomansky 13 november 2015 09:43

quote:
JansenH5 schreef op 13 november 2015 02:15:
Het enige waar ik me zorgen over maak bij ASML is dat er een nieuwe techniek komt, buiten ontwikkeld, en ASML pakt het niet snel genoeg op.

Daar hoef je niet bang voor te zijn, er is daar geen concurrentie voor ASML.

[verwijderd] 13 november 2015 10:29

quote:
tomansky schreef op 13 november 2015 09:43:
[...]

Daar hoef je niet bang voor te zijn, er is daar geen concurrentie voor ASML.

Nanotubes IBM :)

bezinteergebelegt 13 november 2015 16:40

quote:
Prince Meander schreef op 9 november 2015 15:02:
En toen stond er alweer E90,24 op de borden; deze week nog naar E95 en voor eind 2015 E120

Blijf het zo een humor vinden met die man, alweer 5,5 euro lager sinds zijn gebral weer begon.

[verwijderd] 13 november 2015 16:58

So, business as usual....

You were warned several times....

Actually in time of "expected uncertainties" (rates, qe-expansion, financial bubbles, real state of "real economy", etc.) it's much better to stay with (almost) "risk-neutral" funds (with "beta" << abs[1] ). They have "beta's" very close to zero, being NOT correlated with the indices, and so far have (almost) zero market-risks.... (this is just for lt/mt-investors, not for very "active st-investors")

As for 'asml', it has one of the highest "beta" (~1.7) among the aex-funds, and so far has the highest exposure to the market risk ....

Take care.

[verwijderd] 13 november 2015 17:03

Hahahaha oh shut up dude :')

Have you taken a look at the AEX?
-2,5%.

Asml is doing VERY good for a highly cyclical stock.
Nothing to worry about.
Normal market-wide mini correction.

Short term support has been formed at the 451.
Next week bull-run will continue.

[verwijderd] 13 november 2015 18:31

PS. As for the (still highly overvalued in respect to real economy) 'aex', it's developed a bubble, and have restricted upwards potentials ....

The strategic "falling-top-line" (formed by the "tops" from Jul 2007 and Apr 2015) is currently around ~505. And given the (comparable & renormalized) state of real economies at those "highs" (Jul-2007, Apr-2015), as well as some other stuff, the prob to "naturally" (without QEs) break above the "strategic" resistance is really very small....

Corrections in 'aex' (and other indices) are just necessary in order to get back a basic relation (balance) between (overvalued) financial markets and real economies (which are still in a poor state, being disconnected from financial markets by artificial CBs' "activities"). As you know, without QE's the markets & economies would be just in "balance", but at much lower level for indices ....

Of course, there is still some prob (though, a small one) that the ECB may still succeed in braking the (strategic) "falling-top-line" (see above), but this would just increase the "gap", disconnecting financial markets & economies further, increasing so far the prob & necessity for future much deeper corrections ....

[verwijderd] 13 november 2015 19:21

quote:
SNSN schreef op 13 november 2015 18:31:
PS. As for the (still highly overvalued in respect to real economy) 'aex', it's developed a bubble, and have restricted upwards potentials ....

The strategic "falling-top-line" (formed by the "tops" from Jul 2007 and Apr 2015) is currently around ~505. And given the (comparable & renormalized) state of real economies at those "highs" (Jul-2007, Apr-2015), as well as some other stuff, the prob to "naturally" (without QEs) break above the "strategic" resistance is really very small....

Corrections in 'aex' (and other indices) are just necessary in order to get back a basic relation (balance) between (overvalued) financial markets and real economies (which are still in a poor state, being disconnected from financial markets by artificial CBs' "activities"). As you know, without QE's the markets & economies would be just in "balance", but at much lower level for indices ....

Of course, there is still some prob (though, a small one) that the ECB may still succeed in braking the (strategic) "falling-top-line" (see above), but this would just increase the "gap", disconnecting financial markets & economies further, increasing so far the prob & necessity for future much deeper corrections ....

So now your argument for asml's overvaluation has changed from 'business and products of asml are crap', to 'the whole stock market is overvalued so sell asml'

Nice.

[verwijderd] 16 november 2015 11:05

Cees schreef: ASML kan ook wel weer leuk worden voor een ritje omlaag.
U bent dus gewaarschuwd: lees zijn column van vanmorgen.

Anneleen 17 november 2015 11:35

ASML kan wederom aantrekken naar de 90,00 passage, daarboven start een nieuwe weekly uptrend richting 105...nu 86,83

[verwijderd] 17 november 2015 11:37

@Prince
volgens mij blijf jij tot 31 december roepen dat de 120 euro binnen bereik ligt.
:-/

Anneleen 17 november 2015 11:48

Volgens mijn analyse komen we bij deze trend 100% zeker uit op E102, maar aangezien ASML ver is achtergebleven is E120 nog steeds mogelijk

triple a 17 november 2015 14:12

quote:
Prince Meander schreef op 17 november 2015 11:48:
Volgens mijn analyse komen we bij deze trend 100% zeker uit op E102, maar aangezien ASML ver is achtergebleven is E120 nog steeds mogelijk

kun je je analyse wat zichtbaar maken:)

[verwijderd] 17 november 2015 14:19

quote:
Prince Meander schreef op 28 april 2015 10:59:
Ik geef nu een prognose voor eind 2015 ASML:
Koers E170
Na stock splitsing overigens, die er aankomt, is dit E85
MARK MY WORDS DD 28-4-2015!

toch even terug in de tijd

Spreidstand 17 november 2015 22:43

quote:
BassieNL schreef op 17 november 2015 11:37:
@Prince
volgens mij blijf jij tot 31 december roepen dat de 120 euro binnen bereik ligt.
:-/

The bullshit stops when the flag drops :-)Ook voor het orakel van asml..... Gelukkig heb ik voldoende call opties december die nu 2 cent waard zijn. Ga echt dik binnen lopen. Verheug me er nu al op!

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