jurpsy schreef op 12 december 2018 12:09:
Healthcare: BioPharmaceuticals
Pharming Group NV (OTC: PHGUF) | PHARM.AS - €0.76 - AEX |
Buy Company Update
Stock Data
52-Week Low - High €0.64 - €1.62
Shares Out. (mil) 617.18
Mkt. Cap.(mil) €470.0
3-Mo. Avg. Vol. 17,701,910
12-Mo.Price Target €2.25
Cash (mil) €71.0
Tot. Debt (mil) €77.4
EPS €
Yr Dec —2017— —2018E— —2019E—
Curr Curr
1Q (0.01)A 0.01A -
2Q (0.05)A 0.01A -
3Q (0.01)A 0.01A -
4Q (0.0CoolA 0.01E -
YEAR (0.16)A 0.03E 0.09E
Revenue (€ millions)
Yr Dec —2017— —2018E— —2019E—
Curr Curr
1Q 15.5A 29.5A -
2Q 15.2A 30.0A -
3Q 26.1A 38.8A -
4Q 32.9A 39.6E -
YEAR 89.6A 137.9E 177.2E
PHARM.AS One-Year Price and Volume History
PHARM: Investigator Study Could Benefit Ruconest. A German investigator study was press released last week comparing
treatments for acute HAE attacks. Key takeaways from the PR, in our opinion,
include 1) C1 esterase inhibitors (Ruconest, Berinert, Cinryze) outperformed
bradykinin blockers (Firazyr), and 2) this study could improve market share
for Pharming's Ruconest given these results. We consider this an incremental
positive for shares of Pharming.
¦ German study compares HAE treatments. An investigator-initiated study
comparing therapies for acute attacks of hereditary angioedema (HAE) was
presented last week. The open label study compared re-dosing rates in
seven patients (69 attacks) treated with Firazyr (Shire), Cinryze (Shire),
Berinert (CSL Behring), and Ruconest (Pharming). To our knowledge, this
is the first study with a head-to-head design among HAE treatments.
¦
The data. Although the trial was open-label and limited in breadth, the data
was notable. Berinert (n=6 attacks), Cinryze (n=18 attacks) and Ruconest
(n=20 attacks) all resolved symptoms in 90%+ of patients upon first dose
(100% by second dose, note that Ruconest was 100% on first dose when
dosed correctly). The laggard was Firazyr (n=25 attacks), which achieved
56% resolution on first dose, 37.5% (3 of Cool resolution on second dose, and
50% (1 of 2) resolution on third dose.
¦ Takeaway #1 - C1 esterase inhibitors outperformed bradykinin
blockers. The most notable trend, even in the small data set, was the
stronger resolution (near 100%) with C1 esterase inhibitors (Ruconest,
Berinert, Cinryz) relative to bradykinin blockage (Firazyr). Note that Firazyr
is a material player in this category, with conservative estimates of 50%
+ market share of acute HAE treatments and 25%+ of HAE prophylaxis
treatments.
¦
Takeaway #2 - Study could benefit market share for Ruconest. Pharming
reps can market this data (upon publication) to active prescribers of HAE
treatments, which could shift patients away from Firazyr. Further, Ruconest
as an acute treatment could have the most to gain among the compared
products given that 1) we do not believe that Berinert is actively marketed
(focus of CSL on Haegarda), and 2) Cinryze does not have an acute HAE
indication (only prophylaxis). We view this as an incremental positive event
with regards to our future forecasts for Ruconest market share.
VALUATION We value Pharming at €2.25/share. We arrive at this valuation based on applying a ~35X multiple to our
forecasted 2020 EPS of €0.125 – and discounting this target by 25%/year for three years. We believe that 25X
is a reasonable multiple given a challenging generic pathway and continued growth prospects beyond 2020.
The largest risk to our forecasts, in our opinion, is the revenue projections for Ruconest.