Beursonline.nl

Triple A 16 februari 2022 19:04

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quote:
Beursbuffel schreef op 16 februari 2022 13:57:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_XBR_VjqHk

Dezeanalyse van De Aandeelhouder al voorbij gekomen?

Nico Ingberg heeft het erover dat de schuld zo geweldig is afgebouwd. Dat valt echter reuze tegen. De netto schuld (bruto schuld -/- kaspositie) is weliswaar veel lager, maar de bruto schuldenlast is nog steeds hoog.

Gross Debt per 31 december:
2017 bruto schuld $ 4,67 miljard
2018 bruto schuld $ 4,58 miljard
2019 bruto schuld $ 4,66 miljard
2020 bruto schuld $ 4,41 miljard
2021 bruto schuld $ 3,80 miljard

Verder ben ik toch enigszins wantrouwend ten opzichte van beursgenoteerde bedrijven die de "Financial Statements" niet tegelijkertijd met het persbericht over de jaarcijfers presenteren. Ik kan nog nergens op de website een financiële balans van OCI per 31 december 2021 vinden, met als gevolg dat het complete beeld over de financiële positie ontbreekt.

Tot slot weet ik niet in hoeverre er schulden zitten in de joint ventures en deelnemingen van OCI die niet mee worden geconsolideerd in de balans van OCI en derhalve niet in de brutoschuld zitten?

Daar bovenop heeft deze onderneming de eigen financiële prestaties maar zeer beperkt in eigen hand. OCI is vooral afhankelijk van wereldwijde bulkprijzen voor Ammonia, Urea, Methanol, Gas. Een verandering van marktomstandigheden en de dividendmachine waarover Nico het heeft zal haperen.

De gepubliceerde resultaten waren prima. Ik zou om bovenstaande redenen echter voorzichtig zijn met dit fonds.

Ruval 16 februari 2022 19:22

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Nico zegt op het eind ook nog iets over mogelijke reden om geen aandelen inkoop te doen: dan zou de koers te snel omhoog gaan en dat zou niet in het belang zijn van de grootaandeelhouder. Beter zou een dividend route zijn…..

Kan iemand me dit uitleggen?

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 19:22

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quote:
Triple A schreef op 16 februari 2022 19:04:
Daar bovenop heeft deze onderneming de eigen financiële prestaties maar zeer beperkt in eigen hand. OCI is vooral afhankelijk van wereldwijde bulkprijzen voor Ammonia, Urea, Methanol, Gas. Een verandering van marktomstandigheden en de dividendmachine waarover Nico het heeft zal haperen.

Dat geldt voor zoveel bedrijven dat ze afhankelijk zijn van wereldwijde prijzen, bijv Shell
Wellicht dat de extra schulden die opgebouwd zijn bij Fertiglobe ook deels bij OCI terecht komen, waardoor de gross debt niet evenveel is gedaald als netto schuld

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 19:24

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quote:
Ruval schreef op 16 februari 2022 19:22:
Nico zegt op het eind ook nog iets over mogelijke reden om geen aandelen inkoop te doen: dan zou de koers te snel omhoog gaan en dat zou niet in het belang zijn van de grootaandeelhouder. Beter zou een dividend route zijn…..

Kan iemand me dit uitleggen?

Sawiris wil cash en heeft minder baat bij een hogere koers (lijkt het) dat is alleen een papieren winst.

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 19:30

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CF management just made a remarkable statement on the conference call. They said that the current price of urea is an outlier because of "rogue traders" taking advantage of the seasonally extremely low volume to manipulate the prices down. Basically implying the ammonia and UAN prices will not come down, but that urea will come back up once the application season starts.
Much more to come."

Ruval 16 februari 2022 19:34

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quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 16 februari 2022 19:30:
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CF management just made a remarkable statement on the conference call. They said that the current price of urea is an outlier because of "rogue traders" taking advantage of the seasonally extremely low volume to manipulate the prices down. Basically implying the ammonia and UAN prices will not come down, but that urea will come back up once the application season starts.
Much more to come."

Interessant. Ze moeten dit dan wel heel zeker weten om dit zo stellig te communiceren

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 19:39

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seekingalpha.com/article/4477629-cvr-...

Lees vooral de opmerkingen onder dit artikel.
Wordt volop geschreven in de comments.
(CVR is een nogal populair aandeel daar in de VS)

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 20:10

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Christopher Parkinson

That’s always helpful color. And just as a follow-up and Tony hit some of this in your prepared remarks, but just given all the moving parts for forward feedstock costs, so when we were thinking about cost curves for 2023, 2024, some of your long investors as well as the uncertainty in Chinese supply over the next, let's say, at least two years depending on what happens mid-year this year, can you just offer your updated thoughts on intermediate term operating rates for the entire industry? We can focus on urea I suppose, who you ultimately think a marginal cost export would be 2023 and 2024?

And just your excystations for some new capacities coming on. There are also some recent facility closures. So, if you could just give us -- kind of the updated picture on the mosaic, it would greatly be appreciated. Thank you.

Tony Will

Bert, go ahead.

Bert Frost

When you look at what's going on in the world with operating rates, the world is running roughly at 80% operating rates, but that's distributed unevenly with United States and the capacity we built with the great job that Ashraf does with running those plants at 110%, conversely against China at 60%.

And one of the interests of what's going on with the gas supply globally is this $20 gas to $25 gas in Europe is also the same structural cost for an Asian producer. And so you look at the Chinese gas importer, they're having to pay that.

And India today is 50% -- I'd say 60% of their gas supply is LNG imports, paying that same type of price. So, it's natural that you see in India tender and their run rates be below what I think a lot of people in the investment community have modeled requiring therefore, larger levels of imports.

And so these things are constantly moving in a -- and for the first time in history, we've had a lack of supply as well as a high level of demand. That's what's driving global prices. And so those prices are attracting. India had paid the highest price in the world on their – not this tender, but the previous one, and a very acceptable price of around $600 a ton. Why? Because their production costs are so high, and they have low inventory and they need that. That's a reflection of what's going on in the world. That's why we're so positive looking forward in the second half of – with low inventories and moderating production capacities, we see good pricing going forward.

Tony Will

But I'd also say, back to Bert's point, in terms of LNG dependency, European and certain Asian producers are going to be very comparable in terms of high-cost production and competing in terms of what that marginal ton is. I think China is very serious about their environmental controls, and also trying to manage their coal and emissions and therefore, although, we expect them to return to be a supplier on the export stage. I don't think there's – I'm not afraid of this boogie man out there that's going to come, and don't access product into the global marketplace. And so what is really telling for us is the forward energy curves.

Look, even if they compress from today's huge differentials to $10 in 2023 and 2024, that's still on a basis like $350 of margin differential for a North American producer per ton of ammonia. And those are energy spreads that, this industry has never really seen over a prolonged period of time. So the fact that, we're talking about three or four years of these huge margin opportunities for North American production is really a unique time in this industry.

de schaatser 16 februari 2022 20:29

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quote:
Ruval schreef op 16 februari 2022 19:22:
Nico zegt op het eind ook nog iets over mogelijke reden om geen aandelen inkoop te doen: dan zou de koers te snel omhoog gaan en dat zou niet in het belang zijn van de grootaandeelhouder. Beter zou een dividend route zijn…..

Kan iemand me dit uitleggen?

Hij hoeft over dividend uitkeringen geen belasting te betalen.

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 20:38

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Thanks, Hassan. And the next question is this year you're returning significant dividends to the shareholders. What were the reasons to prefer paying dividends about starting a buyback program and are you considering a buyback program as a free cash flow allows that possibility in the future?

Hassan Badrawi

Well, there's two parts to this question. The first part is that, this is not a typical dividend. We have sort of opted for a capital repayment process technically as a company, when we listed in Holland, we were able to establish a certain share premium reserve that we're able to tap into effect these capital reductions, which effectively extends these reductions or make these reductions tax free in terms of withholding tax.

And this benefits is extended to - should be extended to all shareholders, of course, subject to any other personal sort of tax circumstances. In general, they are extendable to all shareholders and we believe that is a very efficient way of returning capital to shareholders. In terms of future buybacks, I think we've alluded in the last conference call that subject to achieving sort of our investment grade - future investment grade rating.

And we are in a good trajectory to achieving this goal we hope that we would then at that juncture potentially explore other avenues of returning capital shareholders. However, we do believe that this capital return or capital reduction, as it's called technically is quite an efficient way of returning capital to shareholders.

Ze gooien het op een soort van 'repayment of capital' ipv een dividend. Het verschil tussen die twee is: (Investopedia)
A capital dividend, also called a return of capital, is a payment that a company makes to its investors that is drawn from its paid-in-capital or shareholders' equity.

Regular dividends, by contrast, are paid from the company's earnings. A company generally will only pay a capital dividend when its earnings are insufficient to cover a required dividend payment, possibly indicating that a company is in trouble as its business operations are not generating a significant amount of earnings or any earnings at all.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
A capital dividend is a type of dividend that is drawn from a company's capital base, as opposed to its retained earnings.
Regular dividends are paid from earnings, representing a share of the profits, and are a sign of good financial health as the company has the ability to distribute additional earnings.
Capital dividends are often seen as a signal that a company lacks spare cash to pay dividends, indicating possible financial trouble.
Companies that pay dividends and that are struggling financially sometimes have the option of stopping dividends until their finances are back on track.
Capital dividends are not taxed as they are seen as a return of a portion of the money that investors paid when they bought shares.

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 20:41

0

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 16 februari 2022 20:38:
Thanks, Hassan. And the next question is this year you're returning significant dividends to the shareholders. What were the reasons to prefer paying dividends about starting a buyback program and are you considering a buyback program as a free cash flow allows that possibility in the future?

Hassan Badrawi

Well, there's two parts to this question. The first part is that, this is not a typical dividend. We have sort of opted for a capital repayment process technically as a company, when we listed in Holland, we were able to establish a certain share premium reserve that we're able to tap into effect these capital reductions, which effectively extends these reductions or make these reductions tax free in terms of withholding tax.

And this benefits is extended to - should be extended to all shareholders, of course, subject to any other personal sort of tax circumstances. In general, they are extendable to all shareholders and we believe that is a very efficient way of returning capital to shareholders. In terms of future buybacks, I think we've alluded in the last conference call that subject to achieving sort of our investment grade - future investment grade rating.

And we are in a good trajectory to achieving this goal we hope that we would then at that juncture potentially explore other avenues of returning capital shareholders. However, we do believe that this capital return or capital reduction, as it's called technically is quite an efficient way of returning capital to shareholders.

Ze gooien het op een soort van 'repayment of capital' ipv een dividend. Het verschil tussen die twee is: (Investopedia)
A capital dividend, also called a return of capital, is a payment that a company makes to its investors that is drawn from its paid-in-capital or shareholders' equity.

Regular dividends, by contrast, are paid from the company's earnings. A company generally will only pay a capital dividend when its earnings are insufficient to cover a required dividend payment, possibly indicating that a company is in trouble as its business operations are not generating a significant amount of earnings or any earnings at all.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
A capital dividend is a type of dividend that is drawn from a company's capital base, as opposed to its retained earnings.
Regular dividends are paid from earnings, representing a share of the profits, and are a sign of good financial health as the company has the ability to distribute additional earnings.
Capital dividends are often seen as a signal that a company lacks spare cash to pay dividends, indicating possible financial trouble.
Companies that pay dividends and that are struggling financially sometimes have the option of stopping dividends until their finances are back on track.
Capital dividends are not taxed as they are seen as a return of a portion of the money that investors paid when they bought shares.

De redenen achter repayment of capital die Investopedia noemt lijken wel doem scenario's haha..
Maar ik denk meer dat 'geen belasting betalen over dat soort dividend' meer eraan ten grondslag ligt dan dat er geen financiele ruimte was om het te doen.

Bert12345 16 februari 2022 20:42

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quote:
de schaatser schreef op 16 februari 2022 20:29:
[...]

Hij hoeft over dividend uitkeringen geen belasting te betalen.

Tuurlijk moeten ze wel dividendbelasting betalen. Alleen sommigen krijgen het terug en andere weer niet. Elk bedrijf betaalt dividend belasting muv deelnemingsvrijstelling aandeelhouders. Geloof me: daar val jij of velen anderen niet onder.

de schaatser 16 februari 2022 20:43

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BultiesBrothers schreef op 16 februari 2022 19:30:
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CF management just made a remarkable statement on the conference call. They said that the current price of urea is an outlier because of "rogue traders" taking advantage of the seasonally extremely low volume to manipulate the prices down. Basically implying the ammonia and UAN prices will not come down, but that urea will come back up once the application season starts.
Much more to come."

Als er 1 firma boter op zijn hoofd heeft is het CF wel.
Er was een petitie van 5000 boeren die protesteerden tegen de extreme kunstmestprijzen.
Het is CF die aangekaart hebben dat de Russen aan dumping doen. Er kwam een onderzoek en CF kon rustig verder produceren en vette dividenden aan de aandeelhouders uitbetalen.
Terwijl eigenlijk de prijzen betaalbaar werden gehouden door voldoende aanbod is het CF geweest in eerste instantie die het markt mechanisme van vraag en aanbod heeft verstoort.
Die boeren zijn terecht laaiend op CF en CF probeert de zaak te redden door met het vingertje te wijzen naar anderen. typische Amerikaans zij prediken de vrije markteconomie. En als iemand het spelletje beter speelt heet het dumping.

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 20:51

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DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Most Fertilizer Prices Up From Previous Month During First Full Week of February 2022
2/16/2022 | 9:54 AM CST
Russ Quinn
By , DTN Staff Reporter
Connect with Russ:
In recent weeks, the average retail price of UAN28 was at or above $600 per ton. This is the first time UAN28 has ever been above $600 per ton in DTN's dataset. (DTN chart)
OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to be mostly higher the first full week of February 2022, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. All but one of the major fertilizers were higher compared to last month.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were slightly higher, although none were up a considerable amount. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $876 per ton compared to last month, MAP $935/ton, potash $815/ton, 10-34-0 $827/ton, anhydrous $1,487/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $600/ton and UAN32 $699/ton (all-time high).

In recent weeks, UAN28 was at or above $600/ton. This is the first time UAN28 has ever been above $600/ton in our dataset.

One fertilizer was lower in price from the previous month. Urea was slightly lower with an average price of $905/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.98/lb.N, anhydrous $0.91/lb.N, UAN28 $1.07/lb.N and UAN32 $1.09/lb.N.

Perspective is an interesting thing and sometimes we gain a new perspective being away from something for a while. As you may or may not have noticed, I haven't written this column the past couple of weeks.

Now that I'm back writing the column, I noticed immediately the percentages of fertilizer price increases for all eight major fertilizers are way lower than three weeks ago. I wondered why this was the case.

Retail fertilizer prices are not any lower in price, so how could the percentages change that much in just few weeks?

More Recommended for You

In the last week of January, fertilizer prices ranged from 69% to 202% higher from the previous week. This week, the range was "only" 46% to 184%.

I went back and looked to see what happened between the third week of January 2021 and the first week of February 2021. As you might recall, fertilizer prices were on a steady rise, but there was a big jump in prices in the last couple weeks of January and first week of February.

The third week of January 2021, DAP was $493/ton, MAP $563/ton, potash $379, urea $387/ton, 10-34-0 $481/ton, anhydrous $482/ton, UAN28 $215/ton and UAN32 $251/ton.

Two weeks later, prices really had taken off higher. DAP was $554/ton, DAP $601/ton, potash $389, urea $429/ton, 10-34-0 $502/ton, anhydrous $507/ton, UAN28 $239/ton and UAN32 $272/ton.

So, the percentages of price changes looking back a full year are much less for the first week of February compared to the third week of January 2021 because of the large price increase happening last year at the end of January.

Translation: Fertilizer prices have now been high for a full calendar year, so the percentages higher are not as great as they had been.

I thought that was kind of interesting. Of course, I have been writing about fertilizer prices for 12 years now ... what do I know about interesting?

Most fertilizers continue to be considerably higher in price than one year earlier.

MAP is now 46% more expensive, DAP is 49% higher, 10-34-0 is 61% more expensive, urea is 100% higher, potash is 105% more expensive, UAN32 is 145% higher, UAN28 147% is more expensive and anhydrous is 184% higher compared to last year.

DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: .

The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention to what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.

Read the nitrogen outlook here: .

Read the phosphorus outlook here:

Read the potash outlook here:

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Feb 8-12 2021 588 642 398 453
Mar 8-12 2021 615 690 423 483
Apr 5-9 2021 618 699 431 504
May 3-7 2021 634 705 436 514
May 31-Jun 4 2021 652 712 443 524
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021 677 721 476 542
Jul 26-30 2021 695 753 549 554
Aug 23-27 2021 697 756 569 557
Sep 20-24 2021 709 786 625 585
Oct 18-22 2021 810 863 716 735
Nov 15-19 2021 825 911 769 859
Dec 13-17 2021 858 935 796 901
Jan 10-14 2022 863 932 807 913
Feb 7-11 2022 876 935 815 905
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Feb 8-12 2021 512 524 243 285
Mar 8-12 2021 581 625 306 344
Apr 5-9 2021 605 692 341 378
May 3-7 2021 618 712 358 398
May 31-Jun 4 2021 619 719 363 412
Jun 28-Jul 2 2021 625 730 366 421
Jul 26-30 2021 631 737 365 419
Aug 23-27 2021 632 748 370 420
Sep 20-24 2021 633 772 383 436
Oct 18-22 2021 659 940 451 492
Nov 15-19 2021 739 1220 571 651
Dec 13-17 2021 790 1420 579 663
Jan 10-14 2022 796 1430 584 679
Feb 7-11 2022 827 1487 600 699
Russ Quinn can be reached at

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

Ruval 16 februari 2022 21:11

0

Bulties, dank voor jouw speurwerk, ik lees jouw bijdragen altijd met veel interesse.

Merk wel dat jouw bijna immer positieve berichten tot hoge verwachtingen qua koers leiden, in ieder geval bij mij. Misschien iets meer bearish berichten, dan ga ik misschien de koersontwikkeling beter begrijpen en heb ik minder teleurstellingen :-)

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 21:22

0

quote:
Ruval schreef op 16 februari 2022 21:11:
Bulties, dank voor jouw speurwerk, ik lees jouw bijdragen altijd met veel interesse.

Merk wel dat jouw bijna immer positieve berichten tot hoge verwachtingen qua koers leiden, in ieder geval bij mij. Misschien iets meer bearish berichten, dan ga ik misschien de koersontwikkeling beter begrijpen en heb ik minder teleurstellingen :-)

Als ik wat bearish vind zal ik het delen.
Maar tot nu toe niet echt gevonden.

Verder, CF voorman lijkt zich niet echt druk te maken als China weer actief gaat worden op de internationale markten.
Want in Azie hebben ze ook last van de hoge gasprijzen en dat de drukt de marges van producenten in India en China.

But I'd also say, back to Bert's point, in terms of LNG dependency, European and certain Asian producers are going to be very comparable in terms of high-cost production and competing in terms of what that marginal ton is. I think China is very serious about their environmental controls, and also trying to manage their coal and emissions and therefore, although, we expect them to return to be a supplier on the export stage. I don't think there's – I'm not afraid of this boogie man out there that's going to come, and don't access product into the global marketplace. And so what is really telling for us is the forward energy curves.

Look, even if they compress from today's huge differentials to $10 in 2023 and 2024, that's still on a basis like $350 of margin differential for a North American producer per ton of ammonia. And those are energy spreads that, this industry has never really seen over a prolonged period of time. So the fact that, we're talking about three or four years of these huge margin opportunities for North American production is really a unique time in this industry.

RJ 80 16 februari 2022 22:00

0

quote:
Ruval schreef op 16 februari 2022 19:22:
Nico zegt op het eind ook nog iets over mogelijke reden om geen aandelen inkoop te doen: dan zou de koers te snel omhoog gaan en dat zou niet in het belang zijn van de grootaandeelhouder. Beter zou een dividend route zijn…..

Kan iemand me dit uitleggen?

Grootaandeelhouder wil blijkbaar aandelen bij blijven kopen op deze niveau’s, liefst met de dividenden die hij van OCI gaat krijgen. Zoiets?

BultiesBrothers 16 februari 2022 22:55

0

quote:
RJ 80 schreef op 16 februari 2022 22:00:
[...]

Grootaandeelhouder wil blijkbaar aandelen bij blijven kopen op deze niveau’s, liefst met de dividenden die hij van OCI gaat krijgen. Zoiets?

Zit ie krap bij kas dat ie eerst moet wachten op dividend?

de schaatser 16 februari 2022 23:00

0

Bulties ook bedankt voor je toewijding en inzet.

de schaatser 16 februari 2022 23:11

0

Opmerkelijk bij CF vandaag tussen de laagste koers en de hoogste koers 10 %. Uiteindelijk een dikke 3 % hoger dan gister.
Conclusie: de beurs moet nog wennen aan deze kunstmestwereld, het zit niet zo makkelijk in het denkwereldje van banken, Tech en maakindustrie.
Morgen met OCI maar weer eens de 26,60 opzoeken.

Vertraagd	26 apr 2024 17:35
Koers	24,630
Verschil	-0,170 (-0,69%)
Hoog	24,970
Laag	24,510
Volume	169.901
Volume gemiddeld	392.148
Volume gisteren	250.302

08 apr	OCI levert klimaatvriendelijke ammoni...	3
14 feb	FT: Sawiris overweegt OCI verder op t...	3
14 feb	Update: OCI keert minimaal 3 miljard ...	7
14 feb	Beursblik: Degroof verhoogt koersdoel...
14 feb	'Resultaat OCI schiet tekort'	1
13 feb	Chippers en Amerikaanse inflatie bezo...
13 feb	JPMorgan verhoogt koersdoel OCI
07 feb	Jefferies verhoogt koersdoel OCI fors
02 feb	Berenberg zet OCI op de kooplijst	2
23 jan	ING verhoogt koersdoel OCI

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