Vici schreef op 27 september 2016 20:01:
NIBC (Martijn den Drijver) herhaalt vandaag zijn koersdoel E10,-
corporate.tomtom.com/analysts.cfmVan het Here draadje geplukt een toelichting:
TomTom (Buy)
Interesting interview CEO Here
In an article in a German management magazine, Here CEO Adzard Overbeek is making some interesting statements
bit.ly/2dbVDNo . The article focuses on Here’s inability to attract new investors, which is a key priority of the 3 shareholders, Daimler, BMW and Audi. CEO Overbeek states that he is flying around the globe to get a deal done but that despite frequent visits to Silicon Valley and China it is difficult to get the right partners while also working on getting the house in order (apparently quite a few senior people have left Here) and develop a new strategy. The writer of the article states that pressure is mounting as the shareholders want a deal done soon. According to an anonymous source in the article, motivation at Here was incredibly low with no projects moving forward because of an internal focus. CEO Overbeek states that he is no longer targeting other car manufacturers, which is caused (according to the writer of the article) by the appointment of supervisory board members of BMW and Audi at Here. The potential in Automotive is huge, according to CEO Overbeek. Here had revenues of EUR 1.2bn in FY15 and an EBIT of around EUR 100m . According to the article CEO Overbeek thinks that the Automotive market alone can increase to a value of EUR 5bn in a 5 to 10 year time frame.
What is the read through? The read through is that Here is in quite a bit of trouble. The pressure from shareholders to attract new investors is resulting in management taking its eye of the ball in terms of the operations and ongoing business just at a time when having the right strategy and focus is critical. The market is moving forward incredibly fast so this is positive for TomTom which does have a clear strategy, stable management and the ability to invest in R&D and products. The statements about the size of the market are positive, as they imply the market will increase by a factor 5 (we assume an FY15 global automotive map/traffic value of around EUR 1bn). Whether that is realistic remains to be seen (we are cautious about assumptions of rapidly increasing ASPs) but even the market increases only to EUR 2.5bn and TomTom increases its market share to 30% (currently around 20-25%), annual revenues should be at EUR 750m versus around EUR 140m in FY16.