BHPB and ArcelorMittal see tight iron ore market as costs curb
The global iron ore market will remain tight until later in the decade because increased capital costs could delay some new projects, supporting prices that have more than doubled over the past three years.
Global iron ore demand, chiefly driven by top importer China, has been outpacing supply, and many analysts have predicted the seaborne market will start to be oversupplied by 2014 or 2015 because of massive expansion by top miners Vale , Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.
Between them, the Big 3, which control around two thirds of the 1 billion tonne global seaborne market, are planning to ramp up output by more than 300 million tonnes over the next three years.
But with rising costs set to delay Greenfield projects, there is little risk of the global iron ore market being oversupplied until late in the decade, Simon Wandke, vice president and chief commercial officer of ArcelorMittal Mining, told an industry conference in Beijing on Tuesday.
Mr Michiel Hovers vice president of iron ore marketing at BHP Billiton said that "It is difficult to get a lot of projects online given the current environment.” Mr Hovers said that growth in supplies tended to fall short of market expectations due to delays and other issues.
BHP said there were no delays in its own expansion projects.
The 2008 financial crisis either cancelled or delayed 300 million tonnes of new iron ore projects, according to an earlier estimate by Standard Chartered Bank, fueling a sharp rise in prices to near $200 a tonne in 2011.
While prices have come off since, to around USD 140 a tonne currently, they are still more than double where they were in late 2008 and nearly triple the production cost of large miners, easily making iron ore their biggest money maker.
BHP said China's iron ore demand growth was set to continue, with 60% of its 1.3 billion population still living with low levels of per capita steel consumption.
Mr Hovers estimated that by 2025, steel demand from China's auto sector alone was expected to add 100 million tonnes to the country's total consumption.
Mr Luiz Meriz president of Vale Minerals China said that "Our strategy is to continue maximising output even when supply becomes more balanced in future.”
(Sourced from Reuters)