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By CHRISTOPHER LAWTON
Google Inc.'s deal to buy Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. will likely put more pressure on a struggling Nokia Corp. and other older players in the industry. But there could be a silver lining for the Finnish cellphone maker.
Analysts speculated that the deal could push cellphone vendors that use Google's Android operating system to boost their use of Microsoft Corp.'s software to hedge their bets on a software supplier that now could be perceived as a competitor with its purchase of a handset maker. In any case, analysts said, Google's move likely will cause worries in the Android camp, which could buy Nokia some time as it makes a transition to Windows.
Nokia, based in Espoo, Finland, placed a big bet on Microsoft in February, when it decided to kill its own Symbian operating system and make smartphones using Microsoft Windows. A key question now is whether other big handset makers, including Samsung Electronics Co. and HTC Corp., will expand their plans to use the struggling Microsoft mobile operating system.
"If Samsung and HTC push Windows Phone faster than they were planning before this, it will drive everyone's business on the Microsoft platform," said Francisco Jeronimo, analyst with IDC. "If everyone starts pushing the platform, this will drive the market. Prices will go down and then that is when the volumes start increasing," he said.
Nokia said Google's purchase was a validation of its strategy. "This further reinforces our belief that opportunities for the growth of Nokia's smartphone business will be greatest with Windows Phone. This could prove to be a massive catalyst for the Windows Phone ecosystem," a Nokia spokesman said. Nokia's American depository shares rose 93 cents, or 17%, to $6.29 in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Some analysts said Nokia's patent portfolio looks increasingly more valuable in the wake of the $12.5 billion price Google paid for Motorola's patents. But others said that the Motorola deal also seemed to revive hopes that Microsoft would now look to acquire Nokia.
Such an outcome was far from certain, or immediate, analysts cautioned, in part because Nokia undoubtedly would be a very large pill to swallow. With more than 132,000 employees at the end of last year, sales in 160 countries and production in nine countries, Nokia had a market value of $20 billion as of Friday's close. The Finnish brand recently lost its first-place position in smartphones but still accounted for 15.7% share of global shipments in the second quarter, versus Motorola's 4.1%, according to IDC.
Microsoft instead is likely to sit back and wait to see how aggressively Google decides to enter the handset business and how well Nokia does on its first Windows handsets, analysts said. Still, if it appears that the Mountain View, Calif., search giant begins to make aggressive inroads with Motorola smartphone sales, analysts said Microsoft could consider feel cornered into making a bold move and acquiring Nokia. In June, Nokia was forced to deny that the company was in talks with Microsoft to sell the business, after repeated rumors surfaced.
"I think after this deal, it does increase the likelihood that Microsoft will be looking at what Google is doing and getting ideas of their own," said Neil Mawston, a director at consulting firm Strategy Analytics. "My sense is that Microsoft will wait and see how the first few launches go and if it goes well, they may dive in and try to merge with Nokia."