ketchup of catch-up schreef op 11 januari 2018 12:12:
uit rapport welke ik vanochtend ontving
" the shares hv dropped on accounting fears and news regarding joiners to the HERE platform.
these fears now seems unfounded as the the earnings momentum - low expectations - and the value story still stand strong, while the recent IFRS 15 & 16 update likely makes the shares screen cheaper and remove any accounting fears.
we acknowledge that these are changes in accounting only and not a change in economics/fundamentals - as such no cash flow impact - we do believe the p/l impact cud hv an interpretation impact on the underlying investment case.
the investment case of TT is not well understood by the investment community due to the complexity of the relationship between the order book and thus future proifability potential and the actual reported near-term earnings
the asymptotic nature of the Automotive rev/profit caused by def-rev and build-up of contract momentum implies that near-term earnings are being punished for costs that are supportive to the order book while the revenue recognition is geared to the future
revenue recognition makes the P/L even more complicated , but we expect that in near-term the P/L related valuation is supported by accounting, this cud bring te stock back in focus when screening on P/L - related valuation metrics while it supports our operational leverage story as it likely brings forward some of the deferred revenues
2017 will be positively impacted by catch-up (geen ketchup) revenue recognition, this trend we expect to also be visible in 2018
for 2017 overall positive impact, from IFRS small 5 mio for positive impact on revenues, but medium 5-25 mio positive impact on gross profit ( +1-4% on INGF) and net profit ( +2% - 43%) , which is significant
we look for cash adjusted EPS - versus P/L adjusted EPS
2018: 0.80 vs 0.40
2019: 0.93 vs 0.50
2020: 1.08 vs 0.65