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ArcelorMittal advies omlaag bij Credit Suisse - Market Talk

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Credit Suisse heeft zijn advies voor staalconcern ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) verlaagd naar neutral van outperform en het koersdoel gaat naar $17 van $20. De downgrade wordt door de analisten onder andere gebaseerd op een gebrek aan aanjagers voor verbetering van de resultaten. Ze wijzen er ook op dat het aanvullen van voorraden niet plaatsvindt en dat de macro-risico's toenemen. De zichtbaarheid blijft volgens de analisten beperkt. Ze verlagen hun EBITDA taxaties voor 2014 naar $8,1 miljard van $9,1 miljard. Het aandeel is dinsdag gesloten op EUR11,76. (LDF)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com


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ABN Amro: prijzen basismetalen trekken op termijn aan

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--ABN Amro stelt woensdag in zijn industriele metalen monitor dat de prijzen voor basismetalen, zoals aluminium, koper, nikkel en zink, op termijn aantrekken. Het aanbod van industriele metalen is voldoende om aan de vraag te voldoen. De positieve vooruitzichten voor wereldeconomie zullen leiden tot toename van de vraag, terwijl de vraag van de zijde van automotivesector solide blijft. Ook de vraag in de bouwsector trekt aan, aldus ABN Amro. De bank verwacht dat dit jaar prijzen van veel basismetalen een impuls krijgen. ABN Amro verwacht echter wel dat de groei in de vraag naar basismetalen vanuit deze regio dit jaar afneemt. Desondanks voorziet het een solide niveau. De prognoses voor de wereldwijde verkoop van auto's blijven voor de belangrijkste markten in 2014 positief. Door de sterke daling in basismetaalprijzen in de eerste maanden van 2014 heeft ABN Amro haar korte termijn voorspellingen naar beneden bijgesteld en gaat nu uit van stabiele tot licht stijgende prijzen voor de komende 3 maanden. De omstandigheden in de aluminiummarkt zijn momenteel ongunstig. Perspectieven voor de lange termijn voor aluminium zien er gunstiger uit. De koperprijs zal in de komende drie maanden toenemen, terwijl de prijs van nikkel als gevolg van grote voorraden waarschijnlijk zal afzwakken. De zinkprijs zal naar verwachting op korte termijn stabiliseren of zelfs licht stijgen. De vooruitzichten op de langere termijn zijn gunstig door de sluiting van enkele mijnen. Tot slot is de ijzerertsmarkt in afwachting van een opleving door een te verwachten stijging in de vraag naar staal. Het herstel in de bouwactiviteit, met name in China, kan een opwaarts effect hebben op de ijzerertsprijs. (ANS)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com

buffalo1
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Tja en dan dit vandaag...........http://www.beursduivel.be/beurstips-en- ... oriet.html

Zoals elke maand hebben de experts aangegeven van welke aandelen ze de komende maand het meest en het minst verwachten. Voor april staat SBM Offshore bovenaan de favorietenlijst. Vorige maand was het aandeel ook al favoriet bij de experts maar stond het niet bovenaan. Het aandeel steeg in maart bijna 18 procent.Andere aandelen die de meeste experts noemden als favorieten voor april zijn ArcelorMittal, ING en Randstad. De floppers voor komende maand zijn naar verwachting van de experts OCI, KPN, Royal Dutch Shell en TNT Express -
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Auto parts exports from India up 4.4% at USD 9.7 bn in 2013

According to latest data issued by Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India, at a time when the Indian auto industry is reeling under a prolonged slump, the component makers have something to cheer as exports grew by 4.4% to touch USD 9.69 billion in 2013. Despite a decline in import by 5% to USD 12.70 billion last year, the country remained a net importer of components.

Commenting on the rise in exports, Mr Vinnie Mehta, Executive Director of ACMA, said that "80% of our exports are to global original equipment manufacturers and tier I companies. Growing credibility of domestic component makers have led to many global companies setting up their sourcing centres in India." There are 35 to 40 international purchasing offices set up by various global entities in India now, he added. The US remains India's biggest component export market but shipments to the country were down 7.1% last year at USD 1.98 billion.

Exports to Germany, the second largest market, registered 8.6% increase at USD 780 million, while it was up 3.6% to the UK, the third largest, at 580 million. On the imports front, Mr Mehta said that "The decline in numbers are largely a reflection of the slowdown in the Indian automobile market."

In 2013, China continued to be the number one country from where maximum components were imported, valued at USD 2.62 billion, up 10% from the previous year. Germany was second at USD 1.86 billion, down 3%, followed by Japan at USD 1.62 billion, down 14%. India's components imports are mainly in two categories high tech parts which come mainly from Germany, Japan, Korea and Thailand and aftermarket parts which are usually originating from China. Annual car sales in India had declined for the first time in 11 years in 2013, posting a 9.59% dip with the auto industry reeling under a prolonged demand slump due to the economic slowdown.

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Industry, domestic car sales fell to 18,07,011 units in 2013 from 19,98,703 units in the previous year. When asked about the prospects in 2014, Mr Mehta said that "It is really difficult to predict but we don't see the market bouncing back soon, as even after the formation of a new government it will take at least six months to stabilise."

However, he hoped that there should be some uptick in the October to December quarter.

Source - www.moneycontrol.com
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Iron ore price on comeback after expected growth in steel demand

Iron ore climbed the most in seven months, trimming a quarterly drop, on speculation that China may speed up construction projects and take measures to counter slowing economic growth in the world’s largest buyer.

Benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at USD 117.60 a tonne, a lift on the USD 116.80 price in the previous session.

It is learnt that Chinese government is under pressure to take steps to address weakening economic expansion amid deepening concern that the nation will miss its 7.5 percent growth target this year, the weakest annual pace since 1990. China will accelerate preliminary work and construction of key investment projects.

Steel producers are making a marked return to the market with an increased number of buying enquiries. Market got off to a healthy start this week with no less than five confirmed trades.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Chinese Dalian iron ore and Shanghai steel rebar futures continue to recover

Reuters reported that Chinese iron ore futures jumped to a near four week top amid expectations for a seasonal pick up in steel demand and hopes that Beijing may step in to support economic growth.

The most active rebar for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 0.15% higher at CNY 3,331 per tonne. It touched a session high of CNY 3,346 its loftiest since March 7.

The most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose to CNY 802 per tonne highest since March 6, before ending up 1.4% at CNY 800.

Mr Ding Rui an analyst with Zhongcai Futures in Shanghai said that "It's a technical correction for steel-related commodities futures and after a string of weak economic data, the overall market atmosphere is improving amid hopes that Beijing will take some measures to maintain growth.”

An iron ore trader in Beijing said that "Steel mills' orders increased slightly in March compared with the first two months, although their profit remains tiny and inventories are high. It's a bit positive for iron ore.”

Source - Reuters
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EU state aid rules undermine affordable energy prices

Mr Jose Manuel Barroso industriAll European Trade Union and The European Steel Association EUROFER explain that the Commission’s draft Environmental and Energy Aid Guidelines undermine the objectives for affordable energy prices and industrial competitiveness asset out by the European Council on 2021 March.

The draft guidelines restrict member states to exempt industry from decarbonisation or renewable surcharges. There is no reasonable justification for limiting exemptions from the surcharges to 80% as the root for distortions on global level and within the Single Market are the decarbonisation charges, not the exemptions.

Competitors within or outside the EU do not have to bear similar costs write Mr Gordon Moffat DG of EUROFER and Mr Bart Samyn deputy general secretary industriAll Europe in a joint letter to Mr Jose Manuel Barroso.

The European Council asked the European Commission torapidly develop measures to prevent potential carbon leakage in order to ensure the competitiveness of Europe´s energy intensive industries. A clear statement that reiterates the position of the European Steel industry, write Moffat and Samyn, and that reinforces the effort to safeguard employment and the competitiveness of the European Steel industry.

The draft Environmental and Energy Aid Guidelines for 2014 to 2020, EEAG, is the most urgent issue for energy intensive sectors. The EU’s 2030 energy and climate framework should be based on the principle of energy supply at affordable and competitive prices.

Energy costs are one of the main factors for the global competitiveness and investment decisions in industry. Without a level playing field, energy costs contribute to de-investment in Europe and carbon leakage as a consequence. Carbon leakage occurs when there is an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in one country as a result of an emissions reduction by a second country with a stricter climate policy.

So it describes the risk that companies relocate their production outside Europe due to increased costs. The current draft is insufficient for meeting above objectives set out by the European Council write Moffat and Samyn in the joint letter to the president of the European Commission.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Chinese iron ore imports to rise by 90 million tonnes in 2014

An environmental clamp down on high polluting Chinese steel plants will neither curb growth in domestic steel production or cut seaborne imports of iron ore which are predicted to rise by a further 90 MT in 2014 to a record 921 MT.

Steel plants in some Chinese regions have been told to slash capacity as well as idle coke batteries and sintering operations as part of push to cut emissions that are viewed as a source of toxic smog enveloping Beijing and Shanghai.

But Wood Mackenzie said there is plenty of unused capacity within China’s steel industry ready to replace any lost production due to shut downs resulting from harsher emissions controls.

The iron market is understandably spooked by the introduction of environmental controls and their potential financial impact on the steel industry and this has caused price volatility will prices plunging to 17 month lows in recent weeks, before picking up again recently.

However during the remainder of 2014, we expect that fighting emissions will have negligible impact on total Chinese crude steel production and limited impact on iron ore demand in terms of quantity.

Source - Mining Journal.com
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China's steel industry struggles with dwindling demand and liquidity crisis

ABC reported that commodities analysts are expecting more steel mills in China to shut down this year as the industry grapples with dwindling demand, plunging prices, a liquidity crisis and tighter environmental rules.

In the city of Tangshan, a major steel production centre, steel production operations are being policed to keep a lid on pollution. The restrictions have led to some questionable practices in the industry.

Mr Han a shopkeeper whose identity is kept secret for fear of reprisals said that "They start the factory again after the officials leave. If it's a particularly tense period, the factories will stop operating for the time being.”

In Hebei province, the provincial government has made a big show of shutting down some of the other factories because they want to show they are determined to win this war on pollution. Such actions have seen many Chinese steel mills either going out of business or being pushed to the brink in recent years because of economic reasons.

Mr Xu Zhongbo from Beijing Metal Consulting said that "Since the beginning of this year, state owned enterprises lost money and 80 per cent of private steel mills began to lose money. This situation will continue for the next three to four years."

Experts said that steel mills have earned a bad name for repeatedly using the same stock as collateral.

Mr Zhongbo said that "The traders they use different tricks to borrow money from the bank. The world's second biggest economy is slowing and with less business than before, the number of steel mills going out of business will only increase as higher costs from tighter environmental regulations kick in.”

Mr Yang Xiaodong from CERI Eco Technology which conducts environmental impact assessments said that business costs could rise between 10% to 20%. You need to control the amount of sulphur dioxide, fine particles, heavy metals and dioxins."

Source - ABC.net
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US updates raw steel production for this week

In the week ending March 29th 2014, domestic raw steel production was 1,820,000 net tonnes while the capability utilization rate was 75.7%. Production was 1,827,000 net tonnes in the week ending March 29th 2013 while the capability utilization then was 76.2%.

The current week production represents a 0.4% decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending March 29th 2014 is down 3.4% from the previous week ending March 22nd 2014 when production was 1,885,000 net tonnes and the rate of capability utilization was 78.4%.

Adjusted year to date production through March 29th 2014 was 23,084,000 net tons, at a capability utilization rate of 76.5%. That is a 0.4% decrease from the 23,180,000 net tonnes during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 77.0%.

Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending March 29th 2014 in thousands of net tonnes: North East: 210; Great Lakes: 606; Midwest: 248; Southern: 667 and Western: 89 for a total of 1,820.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Iron ore soars 4pct to a three week high as naysayers burned

Iron ore explorers and producers will be feeling chuffed following a 4% jump in in the iron ore price to a three week high.

The import price at China's Tianjin port of 62% iron ore fines grade added USD 4.50 to USD 116.80 per tonne. This was the best one day performance in over six months for the steel making ingredient.

China consumes close to 70% of the seaborne iron ore trade and produces nearly as much steel as the rest of the world combined. A number of analysts and pundits had called the iron price as falling to USD 80 per tonne to USD 90 per tonne.

The increase in the iron ore price, plus a triple digit gain by the Dow Jones overnight, is expected to send Australian miners higher. The majors will be in focus such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto along with Australia's purest iron ore play Fortescue Metals Group.

Another stock to watch is Shree Minerals which recently became Australia's newest iron ore producer from its Nelson Bay River Iron Project in Tasmania.

The Nelson Bay River Iron Project has C1 Costs FOB of AUD 59 per tonne, comprised of site costs of AUD 27 a tonne and off-site transport & port of AUD 32 per tonne. Add in about AUD 21 per tonne for shipping and total cost is AUD 80 per tonne. This provides a very handy buffer and a healthy profit margin at current and forecast iron ore prices.

Source - Proactive Investors
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Principe-akkoord HES-ArcelorMittal over ATIC

DONDERDAG 3 APRIL 2014, 13:47 uur | 294 keer gelezen

ROTTERDAM (AFN) - HES Beheer en ArcelorMittal hebben een principe-overeenkomst bereikt over de overname van het belang van 78 procent dat ArcelorMittal heeft in ATIC Services. Dat maakte HES-Beheer, dat al 22 procent van ATIC in bezit heeft, donderdag bekend. Tegelijkertijd meldde HES exclusieve onderhandelingen te voeren met Oxbow Coal over de verkoop van een belang van 50,1 procent in OVET Holding, mits de transactie met ArcelorMittal doorgaat.

De verkoop aan Oxbow Coal zou, als de aankoop van ATIC doorgaat, noodzakelijk zijn uit oogpunt van mededinging. Tevens zou de opbrengst van deze transactie kunnen worden gebruikt om de overname van de resterende 78 procent van ATIC te financieren. Het restant wil HES financieren via bankleningen.

De partijen hebben nog geen overeenstemming bereikt over beide transacties, maar de gesprekken hebben volgens HES “een zodanig stadium bereikt” dat er een adviesaanvraag aan de ondernemingsraden wordt voorgelegd.

Strategie

Volgens HES past de overname in de strategie om de activiteiten in de droge bulk verder uit te breiden en de internationale spreiding op te voeren. Dat waren voor HES al eerder de overwegingen om een belang in ATIC te nemen.

De transactie zou naar verwachting in juni kunnen worden afgerond.
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TATA Steel achieved a record production in 2013-14

PTI reported that TATA Steel has achieved a record production of Hot Metal and Crude Steel as well as saleable steel.

Mr TV Narendran MD of TATA Steel said that “The Hot Metal and Crude Steel production of 9.90 million tonne, up 11.74% YoY and 9.15 million tonne up 12.55% YoY, respectively. The company had produced 8.86 million tonne hot metal and 8.13 million tonne crude steel in FY13.”

Mr Narendran said that on the backdrop of challenging market, TATA Steel has registered a 12.72% increase in saleable steel production at 8.95 million tonne against 7.94 million tonne. The company has set a target to produce 10.55 million tonne of hot metal, 9.75 million tonne crude steel and saleable steel by 9.46 million tonne in FY 2015.

Source - PTI
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NMDC clocks record iron ore sales and production in 2013-14

PTI reported that buoyed by higher demand from domestic steel makers, sales and production of state-owned iron ore miner NMDC touched a record high of over 30 million tonne in 2013 to 2014.

Production and sales of NMDC never touched the 30 million tonne mark since it was incorporated in 1958. Production of the key steel making raw material rose by 11.31% over the previous fiscal to 30.1 million tonne, said a source at the country's largest iron ore miner. NMDC had produced 27.04 million tonne iron ore in 2012 to 2013.

Similarly, sales rose 16.22% to 30.8 million tonne in 2013 to 2014, from 26.5 million tonne on higher demand of the raw material from domestic steel makers. After reaching 29 million tonne in 2008 to 2009, production and sales had fallen to 25.1 million tonne and 27.4 million tonne in the subsequent years.

The source attributed the rise in production to better evacuation system that NMDC has put in place. The company had been facing evacuation problems from its mines in Chattisgarh and Karnataka earlier which was holding back its output growth.

NMDC is enhancing its iron ore capacity to 48 million tonne from 32 million tonne now. The expansion would be gradually commissioned from June and completed by December this year.

During the April-February period of last fiscal ended March 31st, NMDC's sales rose 17% to 27.43 million tonne. Production increased to 26.42 million tonne from 23.52 million tonne.

Source - PTI
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China slowdown to dampen recovery for developing Asia - ADB

According to the Asian Development Bank, developing countries in Asia will see their benefits of higher demand from recovering advanced economies offset by a slowdown in China’s economy.

According to the Manila based bank’s annual Asian Development Outlook, the region’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow 6.2% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015 up from 6.1% in 2013. Moderating growth in China as its economy adjusts to more balanced growth will offset to some extent the stronger demand expected from the industrial countries as their economies recover.

China’s economy is expected to slow to 7.5% in 2014 and 7.4% in 2015 from 7.7% in 2013 as policies promoting more sustainable, equitable and balanced growth are implemented.

While risks have declined, the report warned policymakers to watch out for excessive credit expansion curbs in China, a faltering in the recovery of the industrial economies and a shock to global financial markets from changes in US monetary policies.

Despite developing Asia’s steady growth, it lags other region in public spending on education, health care and social protection. The bank urged policymakers to boost revenue generating measures to fund targeted subsidies and anti-poverty projects.

Public spending on education averages 5.3% of GDP (gross domestic product) in the advanced economies, 5.5% in Latin America but only 2.9% in Asia. Developing Asia only spends 2.4% on health care, compared to 8.1% in advanced economies and 3.9% in Latin America.

For social protection, the region allocates 6.2% while advanced economies spend 20 per cent and Latin America 12%. Due to China’s economy moderating, East Asia’s growth will remain flat at 6.7% until 2015.

India’s projected recovery of 5.5% in 2014 and 6% in 2015 will boost South Asia’s GDP to 5.3% this year and 5.8% next year. Labour tensions in Cambodia and political unrest in Thailand are restraining growth in South East Asia, where GDP growth is projected to be flat at 5% in 2014.

Source - Business Line.com
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TATA Steel forms partnership with UK research body for new coatings

TATA Steel has formed a strategic partnership with the prominent UK research body, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council to develop a range of innovations, among them graphene coated steels and next generation sensors that can operate in extreme environments.

The research will include studying the viability of coating steel strip with graphene, a one atom thick carbon layer whose properties include anti corrosion and a high degree of electrical conductivity. Graphene coated steels could boost the energy efficiency of solar panels, or make buildings longer lasting by reducing damage caused by water or even the most corrosive of chemicals.

Also among the key research areas will be ways to improve waste recycling processes and the development of new sensor equipment whose ability to operate in very high temperatures or extreme chemical environments could lead to greater understanding of metallurgical and chemical properties and processes.

The research partnership with EPSRC will give TATA Steel access to a wider network of world class experts, enhancing its research and development activities. The partners will work together on long-term research, postgraduate training and knowledge exchange in a number of different pre defined areas.

A research partnership agreement was signed earlier this month in the presence of the Rt Hon Vince Cable, the UK Secretary of State for Business, Innovation & Skills, and the Chief Executive of TATA Steel’s European operations, Karl Koehler. It outlines ways in which TATA Steel and EPSRC can maximize the benefits from engaging British universities in research projects.

Mr Debashish Bhattacharjee group director for R&D at TATA Steel said that “Our customers want us to constantly develop new and more sophisticated products that will help them overcome their challenges, now and in the future. We also need to develop new manufacturing processes to support product development. Our partnership with EPSRC will broaden and enhance our research capabilities, helping to speed up the achievement of these objectives.”

Professor David Delpy CEO of EPSRC said that “EPSRC is proud to be working in partnership with TATA Steel and this agreement will strengthen the relationship further. Research across our portfolio has significant impacts in areas in which TATA Steel operates. The company is already investing in joint research projects with UK universities and Centres for Doctoral Training. These relationships will develop the processes and people the UK needs to perform well in the scientific and economic arena.”

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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China steelmakers are in toughest situation - Experts

China Daily reported that China's steel industry is in its toughest year in two decades with falling prices weak demand and overcapacity leading to mergers and acquisitions.

Mr Li Xinchuang head of the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said that “In the first two months of 2014, large and medium scale Chinese steel companies ran a total loss of CNY 2.8 billion. The loss worsened in March.”

Mr Li said that "Solving overcapacity is key to various problems of China's steel industry. Many Chinese steel companies face operational difficulties and obstacles to upgrading while many problems in the industry are closely related to overcapacity."

He said that "The traditional development method of making profit through large production capacity is not working anymore for the steel industry. The companies should be more creative in both management and marketing. Steel companies' profitability varies widely.”

The top 10 profitable steel companies produce 22% of the country's steel output but make 97.7%of industry profit and that may bring mergers and acquisitions. The peak time for M&A in China's steel industry has not come yet but it will be the most important trend in the next 10 years.

According to the China Iron and Steel Association, major domestic steel companies had total profit of CNY 22.8 billion in 2013, mostly generated by their non steel business sectors. The steel units contributed only CNY 5 billion to total profit last year, little for such a huge industry. Association data show the industry's total profit was CNY 169.95 billion in 2006.

Mr Liu Zhenjiang senior official with the association said that “Demand is weakening, but output deceleration cannot reach the fall in demand. This quarter will be the worst for profit this century in China's steel industry. The real winter for the industry is coming, starting now."

Mr Dai Zhihao GM of Baoshan Iron & Steel Company Limited said that more Chinese steel producers will be forced to close in the next three years under the pressure of tighter credit, higher environmental requirements and weak profit. The company reported a 42% fall in net profit for 2013 to CNY 5.82 billion from CNY 10.1 billion in 2012, mainly caused by overcapacity and slower demand growth.”

Source - China Daily.com
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